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August 11, 2010
36 Million Missing Jobs
For those who love precision, there were actually 36.2 million missing jobs.
It has been 8 months since that post. Here's the update.
If it was our plan to stay on that 61-year employment trend well into the future, then there are now 37.9 million missing jobs.
All exponential trends fail at some point. Sometimes it is difficult to tell when an exponential trend is failing. This is not one of those times.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm
12 comments:
As a side note, all economic predictions based on 70+ years of historical performance are now suspect.
I'm talking specifically to you Jeremy Siegel.
This is true, Mark. This is true.
This time it is different. The pill made it so.
Mark,
"The Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades." I suspect the policy makers are wearing blinders, though.
CMDEBT could only take us so far . . .
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=gN
It took a $1T+ annual consumer debt draw (blue line) to keep us from falling during the previous decade.
The red line is increase in government spending; we can see that "Keynesian" gov't cheese hasn't ~quite~ replaced the mother of all credit bubbles.
Troy,
You're kidding,right?
MaxedOutMama,
This time it is different. The pill made it so.
Someday we'll find out all these placebos were actually nocebos (and yes, nocebo is an actual word, go figure).
Troy & nanute (& all),
Here's a hard link to Troy's chart.
CMBDEBT and GEXPND
P.S. I don't think Troy is kidding.
Hmm - an anti-Semitic code word thingie? My verification word is "jewiesse"? This can get you offed in Afghanistan, I suspect.
If you look at withdrawals from home equity (much of it fake home equity) plus the increase in CCs, it's clear that the economy of the aughts was a fake all the way through.
I don't think Troy is kidding, but I know I'm not. It wasn't even an illusion. An illusion fades away and you are left with reality, but the illusion doesn't change reality.
It was an out-and-out fraud.
MaxedOutMama,
"...It wasn't even an illusion. An illusion fades away and you are left with reality, but the illusion doesn't change reality.
It was an out-and-out fraud."
Oh oh. I've got blog naming remorse.
Corruption of Prosperity
I want either less corruption or more opportunity to participate in it.
Despair.com for the win. Sigh.
Mark,
I wasn't referring to the graph. I should have been a bit clearer.I'm questioning the Keynesian Gov't Cheese stimulus line.I don't think the US has ever tried a true Keynesian stimulus; not even during the 1st depression.
nanute,
The Gov't Cheese doesn't seem all that evenly spread. I will give you that. Perhaps it is a hard cheddar and as such can only be given out in large chunks to the most deserving.
And who should deserve the cheese more than the banking system that helped create all this mess?
Desk. Forehead. Whack. Whack. Whack.
My point exactly. And it certainly isn't Keynesian cheese by any stretch of the imagination.
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