Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Uncertainly Doomed

October 11, 2011
Holiday restaurant sales uncertain, but not doomed

Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the National Restaurant Association’s research and knowledge group, said restaurant industry sales have been running at about a 3-percent increase so far this year, “and there’s no reason to think it will diminish substantially over the fourth quarter.”

Inflation was up 3.8%. The population grew 0.8%.

Even with a growing population, real restaurant industry sales fell (adjusted for inflation).

Consumers have “frugality fatigue,” he noted. “This is the fifth year of economic weakness and the pent-up demand for restaurant dining is still elevated.”

An abundance of real prosperity would certainly put an end to the frugality fatigue. Based on what I named my blog, I'm not exactly holding my breath.

As a side note, there's an even higher "pent-up demand" for historical 8% pension fund returns.

October 10, 2011
Pensions Wrestle With Return Rates

"To target 8% means some aggressive trading," said Jeffrey Friedman, a senior market strategist at MF Global. "Ten-year Treasurys are yielding around 2%, economists say we are headed for a double-dip, and house prices aren't getting back to 2007 levels for the next decade, maybe."

"Good luck to them," Mr. Friedman said of pension managers still striving to hit longstanding targets.

Good luck indeed.

"A new day has dawned," said Morrie Lanning, chairman of the Legislative Commission on Pensions and Retirement in Minnesota, who wants to lower the return target. "It may have made sense in the past, but it's not realistic anymore."


dearieme said...

Here's an interesting wee straw in the wind.

Stagflationary Mark said...


From your link...

"The exchange is not neutral for pensioners – the company is giving only 60pc of the value of expected increases and keeping 40pc for itself. Even those pensioners who live to the average age will be worse off and those living longer than average will be much worse off."

Is there no shame? Sigh.