Sunday, November 27, 2011

Black Friday Thoughts

November 27, 2011
Black Friday Sales Advance 6.6% to Record, ShopperTrak Says

"This is the largest year-over-year gain in ShopperTrak's National Retail Sales Estimate for Black Friday since the 8.3 percent increase we saw between 2007 and 2006," ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said in the statement."

There was an 8.3% year-over-year increase on Black Friday in 2007.
The WTI crude oil price was $98.24 on Black Friday in 2007.

The Great Recession began in December 2007.

There was a 6.6% year-over-year increase on Black Friday in 2011.
The WTI crude oil futures price is currently $98.48.

What could possibly go wrong?

19 comments:

nab said...

WTI topped $100/bbl this morning. Not good.

Who says you can't put out a fire with gasoline?

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

I think our "resilient" economy has a heart of glass.

Once I had a love and it was a gas
Soon turned out had a heart of glass
Seemed like the real thing, only to find
Much of mistrust, love's gone behind

mab said...

And if you're trying to cut me down
You know that I might bleed
Cause if you're trying to cut me down
I know that you'll succeed
And if you want to hurt me
There's nothing left to fear
Cause if you want to hurt me
You're doing really well my dear


Annie Lennox, "Walking On Broken Glass"


Apparently, deflation in housing is acceptable, but deflation in CPI is not. You can't make this stuff up!

Could they be more misguided?

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

It's a Green Day day. Heck, might even be another Rubicon day, lol.

Read between the lines
What's @#$ed up when everything's alright


Green Day, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams"

mab said...

Green Day, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams"<

"Basket Case" comes to mind!

OT, have you seen the latest CNBC morning segment titled "Sorkin's Fair Value"????

It's a new CNBC low for uselessness.

"Sorkin's Fair Value"?????? What the F....

Fritz_O said...

CNBC reported that retail sales for the weekend were $52.4B.

If there are 314M people in the US, that's $167.00 spent by every man, woman, and child in the US over the weekend.

Call me a skeptic, but I don't believe that $52.4B number.

The idea that every M,W,& C has already spent $167 this CMas season is preposterous.

Unless every M,W,& C has intentions of returning about 25% of everything they bought this weekend. That idea I could embrace.

On another note, there are the usual anecdotal stories floating around about people having to park in the grass at the mall.

Anonymous said...

retail sales <<

What is the definition? Does that include food, etc.?

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"Sorkin's Fair Value"?????? What the F....

I propose Orkin's Fair Value. It accounts for the termites in our credit infrastructure. D'oh!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous (& Fritz_O),

What is the definition? Does that include food, etc.?

Retail sales generally includes grocery stores, restaurants, auto sales, and gasoline. The latter was probably a non-trivial amount as "savvy" shoppers drove from store to store to save a buck (not factoring in the 50+ cents per mile it costs to operate a vehicle). Just a hunch.

dearieme said...

Our Apple Store had a money-off day, and we're not in the US!

Fritz_O said...

"Retail sales generally includes grocery stores, restaurants, auto sales, and gasoline."

I'd count grocery as largely non-trivial as well given that most grocery shopping was likely done before the holiday and weekend. I could be wrong.

And auto sales? I guess one auto sale could account for 150 of those M,W,&C.

My local newspaper had a story of a local family (F, M, & 3 C) who got up at 3:00am to head out to the mall. That's training your children to be good consumers. "Sigh" I wonder if mommy let the little darlings get up on a highchair to swipe daddy's credit card? "Sigh2"

MaxedOutMama said...

I likes the songs that the debtors sing....

There are a lot of pretty wealthy people who might have dropped big bucks on BF.

tj and the bear said...

First, those early retail numbers are BS anyway (as proven every year). Second, IMHO anyone risking their neck out there *needs* deals because their funds are tight.

Let's see what happens between now & Xmas.

Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

I'd read the fine print on any "money-off" day sale.

Bring in $500 to buy our goods and we'll take $50 off!

Fine Print: That actually means you'll only have $450 to spend.

Hahaha! :)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fritz_O,

My local newspaper had a story of a local family (F, M, & 3 C) who got up at 3:00am to head out to the mall.

I'd like to know when Thanksgiving turned into a time to be thankful for upcoming mall purchases.

Stagflationary Mark said...

MaxedOutMama,

There are a lot of pretty wealthy people who might have dropped big bucks on BF.

And let's not forget the people who have used debt to become wannabe wealthy.

The combination of credit cards and Tiffany might have been too hard to resist (again)?

Then again...

November 29, 2011
Tiffany sales growth shows signs of slowing

(Reuters) - Concerns about slowing sales momentum took some of the luster off Tiffany & Co's (TIF.N) stock amid signs that European and U.S. economic distress are weighing on luxury consumers, and shares fell 9 percent.

Stagflationary Mark said...

tj and the bear,

Second, IMHO anyone risking their neck out there *needs* deals because their funds are tight.

For what it is worth, I share that opinion. I told my girlfriend when the sales numbers came out that it felt like a last gasp to me (much like it did in 2007).

Stagflationary Mark said...

What a sad day.

I was looking forward to a Rubicon post but the S&P 500 couldn't stay above 1200.

Perhaps this video explains what went wrong.

Stagflationary Mark said...

What a sad day.

I was looking forward to a Rubicon post but the S&P 500 couldn't stay above 1200.

So what went wrong?

I think this video explains it better than most.