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Eating out less and shopping in more?
And we wonder why employment growth is weak?
Source Data:
U.S. Census Bureau: Monthly & Annual Retail Trade
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Fed Chair Powell
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[image: Mortgage Rates] Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com
and are for top tier scenarios.
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The *initial weekly ...
6 hours ago
8 comments:
One wonders if the Fed understands that high gasoline prices can cause people to eat out less and shop at home more.
One really wonders that.
On the other hand, I think it was going to happen anyway. I certainly don't believe that gasoline is the sole reason Amazon.com's market cap is 13x greater than Sears.
Mark,
Thanks for this chart.
Report on my local mall:
For the holidays, they had some vacancies. They filled two of them with what look like flea market venders. No decorations - cheap jewelry and cheap handbags. Otherwise we have a JCP, Belk's, Beall's and a couple of jewelry stores. Can you spell desperate?
And I had noticed that JCP didn't seem to have anything new since about August in the windows - And just this week I saw that the new CEO is planning to turn the company around by creating an environment where employees are creative and engaged. Please. I've been around the block a time or two - not happening. That is just nonsense. Not that I know what is going to happen.
The JCP CEO also said that sales of basic goods were weak this quarter because of less demand. Not exactly. I bought one item the last quarter - socks for my hubby. They cost the same as the previous socks but were half the quality. I was going to buy him pants too, but when I realized the fabric was half the thickness for the same price(he wears heavy duty cargo pants - construction work), I passed. So if it weren't for customer loyalty/ stupidity/ or something, sales of basic goods wouldn't have even been as high as they were.
I am confident you'll post an appropriate video.
Audrey
Mark,
OT - My personal bearish viewpoint did not appear until about a year ago when my oldest boy (I have two - now 7 and 5) started kindergarten. It took about two months for me to realize the horror that is kindergarten. They pander to the lowest common denominator, (still repeating the same stuff in 1st grade), stuff propaganda into them, and worst of all, my son loves it. Why is that so bad? Because I know that at some point he will have to face the fact that these teachers are -how do I saw it - building dreams that I know are destined to fail.
Sad. But I don't think there's anything I can do to change the trends of the future, so I try to be grateful he and his brother can live in a lala land a little longer. Reality will hit soon enough.
I worked as a contract business consultant up until last spring. I stopped due to a combination of medical issues (probably arising through the stress of dealing with people's money plans and small business owners) and not wanting to put my kids in any more daycare (which is usually like a combination of Office Space and Wall-E). I had them in a wonderful home daycare all these years, but the poor dear woman had to close her place up last spring.
Anyway - I appreciate your blog because I don't feel like an isolated failure anymore. I feel like I've been going down the same river as everyone else. And this is the only place I have seen this information. I perhaps gave too much information in this comment, as they say, but it was the only way I could think of to explain why I was grateful to see beyond the packaged illusion we are fed normally. It is what I did for business owners for years and years, in a sense, and now I know what it's like to have a source of reality.
Gee I'm talky tonight. It comes and goes.
Less later.
Audrey
Audrey,
I am confident you'll post an appropriate video.
It is not often that the Illusion of Prosperity blog inspires confidence! If this isn't proof that miracles do happen I don't know what is!
I posted what you wrote and gave you a musical tribute. Let's hope your confidence was not misplaced, lol.
Audrey,
I stopped due to a combination of medical issues (probably arising through the stress of dealing with people's money plans and small business owners) and not wanting to put my kids in any more daycare (which is usually like a combination of Office Space and Wall-E).
If you haven't read this then I encourage you to do so. I know exactly what you mean. I have no ability to deal with stress now. My defenses are down and they won't ever be coming back. I can only imagine what would have happened had I not had the good fortune to retire when I did. I wake up every day feeling VERY lucky. I don't take anything for granted.
The whole system is failing and from where I sit my former company was merely a symptom. It's like a once well-oiled machine that's starting to run low on oil. Literally.
Heck, it doesn't even really make good drama. It's been playing out for more than a decade so far.
Many new bears expect fireworks and excitement. As I see it, it is simply a slow motion train wreck that never seems to end. Sigh.
Mark,
I'm glad you posted my comment - I wouldn't write anything I didn't consider (relatively) public.
I read your layoff story - 42 years. I hadn't read it yet.
It did not inspire confidence but was very illuminating. My husband loves video games and I am very grateful for them. If not for them, I'm fairly confident that many male members of our society would turn to self destructive (alcohol, etc) distractions. But apparently they can't support high employment.
I have never been laid off.
But I have been working for companies that died, when they died. Once as a contract bookkeeper, once I got a job for a clothing store only to learn that they were only hiring b/c the employees "knew" the store was closing and had quit (I stayed to help box up clothing), and countless time in my consulting business, I had meetings with business owners who laid out their plans for their business and I had to spell out to them why mathematically it wasn't going to work. Most of them went ahead with their plans anyway, but without me.
I don't know how that counts in the 6 year layoff equation.
I am looking for the silver lining.
Still looking....
Audrey
Mark,
I remember the silver lining.
You said it - Every day I wake up, I'm grateful to be here. Sincerely. For a while at least every day.
When I'm dreaming about becoming a 7 foot transparent alien. Lol.
Audrey
Audrey,
Some mornings it just doesn't seem worth it to gnaw through the leather straps. - Emo Philips
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