Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.30 (Musical Tribute)

Here's a list of dates when the S&P 500 crossed above the 1200 level (at the close compared to the previous trading day's close).

1. 12/21/1998
2. 4/18/2001
3. 7/12/2001
4. 7/26/2001
5. 12/14/2004
6. 12/21/2004
7. 2/4/2005
8. 2/11/2005
9. 2/24/2005
10. 6/1/2005
11. 6/9/2005
12. 6/13/2005
13. 6/28/2005
14. 7/5/2005
15. 7/8/2005
16. 10/31/2005
17. 9/16/2008
18. 9/18/2008
19. 9/25/2008
20. 4/14/2010
21. 4/20/2010
22. 4/29/2010
23. 5/3/2010
24. 11/4/2010
25. 12/1/2010
26. 8/15/2011
27. 8/29/2011
28. 9/15/2011
29. 10/12/2011
30. 11/30/2011

Wake me up
(Wake me up inside)
I can't wake up
(Wake me up inside)
Save me
(Call my name and save me from the dark)

Wake me up
(Bid my blood to run)
I can't wake up
(Before I come undone)
Save me
(Save me from the nothing I've become)

See Also:
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.22
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.23
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.24 (Musical Tribute)
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.25
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.26
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.27
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.28 (Musical Tribute)
Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.29 (Musical Tribute)
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
Yahoo: S&P 500 Historical Prices


Who Struck John said...

I don't think you'll have long to wait for the next crossing.

Who Struck John said...

Here's a good link for you, Mark.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Who Struck John,

You are right. It is a good link for me! I am filled with renewed optimism. ;)

The worst thing you can do as an investor is to extrapolate non-normal conditions (again, whether it is good or bad) in a linear fashion into the future.

I'm doing the worst thing with these Rubicon posts apparently. 1998 to 2011 were not normal conditions. I consider them to be "new normal" conditions.

Perhaps "old normal" conditions are coming again. When can we expect 39.1 million jobs and $11 oil? When can we expect to see the government debt life support system removed from the dying patient? That would certainly make me more optimistic (assuming the patient did not die).

For all I know he could be right though. Maybe the next decade will be wonderful for stocks. I hope so. I'd certainly sleep better (even sitting in TIPS and I-Bonds, for at least I would know that I would be paid).

That said, I can say this with near certainty. Since 2004, I'm done with the stock market. It's been 7 years and I have no complaints.

I've watched the DJIA rise from 10k to 14k while sitting on the sidelines. It would not surprise me to see it happen again.

I then watched it drop to 7k while sitting on the sidelines. It would not surprise me to see that also happen again.

If neither of those two events could pull me back into the stock market (chasing momentum or chasing value) then I doubt anything can. I am content where I am.

And lastly, I honestly do hope he is right. Although I sit in TIPS, I still want higher interest rates (even though it hurts their market price). As bonds mature I'd like to reinvest at a better rate. As a saver, if the stock market takes off and people therefore abandon TIPS as part of a "risk on" trade then I would be one happy camper.

CP said...

Argh! I didn't think it would happen again so soon!

Stagflationary Mark said...


Nobody expects the Rubicon Inquisition! ;)