Monday, December 12, 2011

Hyperinflation Theories Poned Again

Urban Dictionary: Pone

Poser lingo for the internet slang word 'pwned' as in being owned or disgraced by someone else.

Contrary to the opinion of shadowstats and as seen in the following link, hyperinflation is not yet upon us.

December 11, 2011
Tips for Wringing More From Your Cash Holdings

'Ziploc Bags Do Well'
In response to my query, several posters discussed the sad state of affairs for cash holders. Konodrum quipped, "I bury cash or stuff it in the mattress. Ziploc bags do well."

FidlStix is also keeping his sense of humor, even as he acknowledges that the landscape has become a challenge for retirees and anyone else attempting to wring a return from low-risk assets. "I recently went to my local hardware store to buy two stainless-steel buckets for my shorter-term retirement needs. I prefer stainless because it's practically corrosion proof and stays shiny longer. Sadly, all they had were cheerless, gray galvanized buckets with holes in the bottom."


Think about this for a moment. People are joking about buying containers to store money. That's not what one would expect to see during hyperinflation.

I'm a fan of Ziploc bags. I hoard them. It isn't because I'm all that worried about hyperinflation. I just think they will perform better than buried cash and/or short-term treasury bills over the long-term.

Ben Bernanke has encouraged my hoarding/saving behavior by keeping short-term rates at 0%. I have therefore brought future purchases of basic necessities into the present. If the goal is to make the current economy better and the economy of the future worse, then mission accomplished. It's not like I will be buying more Ziploc bags overall. I have simply altered the timing of my purchases. That's all.

I'm pretty much done buying Ziploc bags. I have about all I will ever need. I'd like to think that I am at least as smart as a
squirrel but I will admit that it is open for debate. I'm serious. As seen in the link, I have not scattered my hoard. But hey, at least I have a hoard. In the eyes of a squirrel, surely that's better than doing nothing.

So why aren't more people doing it?


Compulsive hoarding

Compulsive hoarding (or pathological collecting) is a pattern of behavior that is characterized by the excessive acquisition and inability or unwillingness to discard large quantities of objects that would seemingly qualify as useless or without value.

That's just nuts! Is it any wonder that hoarding got a bad name?

November 2, 2009
8.6% Return on Investment!


Do the items in the picture look useless or without value? The return on garbage bag investment is now 35.8%. Fortunately, nothing else in the picture is even close. Inflation has been mostly tame. It's almost like garbage bags are special (made of petroleum products). Come to think of it, so are Ziploc bags.

See Also:
A Wheelbarrow of Food to Buy Cash

12 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

As a side note, hindsight shows I should have bought more garbage bags. We go through about 1 box a year. I only stored about 12 years worth.

I've expanded my supply slightly since the picture was taken (for pretty much everything in the picture). Once again, what's the harm?

getyourselfconnected said...

Wow, 35%! Ticker TRSHBAG

fried said...

Mark,
Could you send me your address? If things get truly disastrous, I want to make sure I burgle only well-stocked homes.

AllanF said...

Oh, it's easy to spot. It's the one with the moss-covered PODS in the backyard.

dearieme said...

Mark, I thought this might interest you. It seems to involve pension trustess whose actions defended their members from stagflation.

http://blog.redington.co.uk/Articles/Dawid-Konotey-Ahulu/December-2011/PENSION-TRUSTEES-WHO-TAKE-DECISIVE-ACTION.aspx

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

I'm a garbage bagholder, lol.

Stagflationary Mark said...

fried & AllanF,

Surely there must be easier targets. The 150 pounds of kitty litter would only net you roughly $40 *if* you could sell it back to Costco.

I just made sure my car was filled on each shopping trip. My extra transportation costs were negligible. A burglar's wouldn't be.

That said, I'll be adding even more concealment moss this winter just to be on the safe side. And thorny bushes!!

Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

That link did interest me. Well worth a read!!

Argument One: Over the previous 100 years, the real yield had been down to zero on several occasions. Indeed, the "normal" levels of 3 or 4% (and the floor of 2%) so readily quoted by Conventional Wisdom were the outliers, the exception, NOT the norm. We had experienced zero percent real yields in the past and we would likely see them again. I had 100 years of data and the 100 year graph.

Bingo! For those who bother to look, WWII real yields were every bit as bad as 1970s real yields.

Argument Two: The risk of materially lower real yields was a risk the pension scheme JUST COULD NOT AFFORD TO TAKE! If Conventional Wisdom was wrong, the entire pension scheme would be in jeopardy. And, crucially, in 2003, a hedge was relatively affordable. Why wouldn't you??

That is EXACTLY why I have a TIPS bond ladder and bought the 30 year TIPS earlier this year. I did not want to take the risk that real yields would fall.

Jeremy Siegel can't seem to figure this out. I was attempting to REDUCE long-term risk, not add to it.

Jeremy Siegel = Conventional Wisdom [Tree]

Fritz_O said...

"Jeremy Siegel = Conventional Wisdom [Tree]"

Here is another simple formula:

"Thanksgiving Thursday night shopping + record food stamps = Bad Economy"

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fritz_O,

From your link...

No one who can afford otherwise goes out Thanksgiving night to stand in the cold with a crowd, to fight the stampeding, pepper-spraying mob for a discounted X Box.

Nice find. It's formula day!

Here's another one.

MF Global = Grayson Moorhead Securities

Saturday Night Live: Grayson Moorhead Securities I

We will make a list of our clients, and how much money each of them has given us to invest. We will keep this list in a safe place. If we have time, we will make a copy of the list, in case something happens to the first list.

There's just never enough time.

Saturday Night Live: Grayson-Moorhead Securities II

Had you invested $100,000 in this fund five years ago, that investment would now be worth absolutely nothing, with a federal income tax liability of nearly $840,000. But you would have something more important than money -- that you would have none of. You would have the pride of knowing that, though you failed, you had dared mighty things, unlike those timid investors who, in the words of the poet, know neither victory nor defeat. Although I suppose investors who placed their money with our competitors, and thus made a fortune, could argue they actually did, in fact, know victory. And perhaps, in a financial sense, they did. But they didn't know defeat. That is something only our clients understand.

MF Global Execs Say They Don’t Know How Funds Went Missing

“This isn’t the Dark Ages,” she said in opening remarks prepared for the hearing. “MF Global didn’t keep their books with feather quills and dusty ledgers. The rules about keeping customer money segregated are pretty straightforward.”

Here's a bonus formula.

2000 to Present = Investment Dark Ages

fried said...

"even more concealment moss this winter just to be on the safe side."

Is that friendly? I ask you.

Stagflationary Mark said...

fried,

Moss is eco-friendly! And in the end isn't that all that really matters? ;)

Further, society wants me to use moss "concealer" to hide any unsightly blemishes. It's the very "foundation" of healthy house skin, lol.