Thursday, May 3, 2012

Younger Worker Employment vs. Treasury Yields


Click to enlarge.


Click to enlarge.

Shiranu ga hotoke.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Japanese Proverbs

9 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

I accidentally had the scales reversed on the 2nd chart. Sorry about that. It's been fixed.

I realized there was a problem when I saw that the March 2012 data point on my chart showed 5.6% 10-year treasury yields.

"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."

Heck, we're not even in the same solar system!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Bonus thought.

David Faber of CNBC said recently that bonds are dangerous. He said it could not be repeated enough. Everyone just sort of nodded in agreement.

Is that how bubbles are supposed to work? Everyone scared to death of owning the asset in question?

He didn't say what might happen to stocks if 10-year interest rates tripled from 2% to 6%. I wonder why.

As a side note, I'm willing to predict November's I-Bond fixed rate right now.

0.0%

I'll be shocked if we make it to 0.1%. Seriously.

Stagflationary Mark said...

16-24 year old employed workers make up just 5.6% of our population right now. Why?

1. Demographics
2. Horrible Economy
3. College Glut?

We better hope that this group finds prosperity and not just extreme college debt, or housing is going to have serious ongoing "starter home" problems. Sigh.

mab said...

We better hope that this group finds prosperity and not just extreme college debt, or housing is going to have serious ongoing "starter home" problems. Sigh.

Exactly. But it's not just starter homes. What about all the boomers that will be looking to downsize?

Over-charging society for a college education might even be dumber than over-charging society for housing. There's no end to the stupid! Heck we reward stupid and fraud. And all the tomfoolery can be traced to the abusive use of credit.

The Greenanke Feds need to be held to account for not following their actual mandate which is to regulate credit aggregates. The dual mandate is a giant LIE that won't die.

Anonymous said...

The Greenanke Feds need to be held to account <<

Bring back public hangings??? :)

Troy said...

The top chart fits my thesis perfectly -- that the 1970s inflation event was driven by the babyboom bumrush into the workforce.

I actually have a spreadsheet here with the annual births going back to 1900. It doesn't have actual immigration alas, but I do think the better numbers you have the more hotoke nature you can get.

The number of native-born 20-35 yos as percent of CNP16OV started at 33% in the mid 1960s and peaked at 37% in 1982.

Since 1983 it has declined to 24% but is beginning to reverse now as the baby boom echo replaces Gen X in this category.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

But it's not just starter homes. What about all the boomers that will be looking to downsize?

For just 50 cents more I can supersize your order.

Gallows humor.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

The top chart fits my thesis perfectly...

It does!

Since 1983 it has declined to 24% but is beginning to reverse now as the baby boom echo replaces Gen X in this category.

And if we can't create many more jobs due to heavy debt loads, ongoing automation, and outsourcing, your second thesis will come into play (more mouths to feed). Sigh.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

Bring back public hangings??? :)

Based on the stock market performance since 2000, would you settle for publicly traded hangings? D'oh! ;)