Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Housing Starts

The following chart shows the number of single unit housing starts divided by the number of housing starts with 5 units or more.


Click to enlarge.

The "ownership society" is in serious trouble.

The term appears to have been used originally by President Bush (for example in a speech February 20, 2003 in Kennesaw, Georgia) as a phrase to rally support for his tax-cut proposals (Pittsburgh Post - Gazette, Bush OKs Funding Bill for Fiscal '03, Feb 21, 2003 Scott Lindlaw). From 2004 Bush supporters described the ownership society in much broader and more ambitious terms, including specific policy proposals concerning home ownership, medicine, education and savings.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

18 comments:

Jazzbumpa said...

Bush's whole "ownership society" canard was a ruse to get taxes lowered and privatize SS.

Your graph is interesting, but there is a missing dimension. What is the absolute value of housing starts?

Also, the two big peaks are striking. What do they relate to. I'm gong to guess a denominator effect.

Cheers!
JzB

mab said...

The "ownership society" is in serious trouble.

Huh? I thought everything went according to hoyle?

Mission Accomplished!

p.s. There's a reason we have puppets in CONgress and in the White House.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Nice chart. Does this show that after a big real estate bubble, starts come back but mainly for a rental market? Seems the 1989 bust led to more apartments. Same now or am I reading it wrong? Merry Christmas!

dd said...

I always thought "ownership society" meant we'd be owned by
the bankers; not that anyone would ever actually
hold free and clear title to a house what with Greenies
call to ARMs and HELCOs.

Fritz_O said...

Yes, it's all good news for housing starts. Let's look at it through the lens of building supply costs: drywall up 15% in that last 12 months, and suppliers are telling builders that drywall will go up another 30% in the next 12 months.

Look at the homebuilders stock over that last 12 months. Gains measured not in single digit percents but rather hundreds of percents.

This would be a good time for Cramer to tout homebuilders.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Jazzbumpa,

What is the absolute value of housing starts?

Is that with or without the granite countertops? ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

Huh? I thought everything went according to hoyle?

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that the bidding system is being gamed.

I can assure you that... um, I well, um, bid 30! I've got 3 legs of the double Pinochle! ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

Same now or am I reading it wrong?

I think you are definitely reading it right. There was a housing bust in the early 90s.

Merry Christmas to you as well!

Stagflationary Mark said...

dd,

I've never felt like I own my house free and clear. The property taxes do add up. In fact, it feels a lot like rent.

Stagflationary Mark said...

I'm not complaining mind you. I expect to be taxed. I just find it interesting.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fritz_O,

Gains measured not in single digit percents but rather hundreds of percents.

Predictable. Solid. Perpetual.

No doubt about it once sarcasm is factored in, lol. Sigh.

Stagflationary Mark said...

I'll post a new initial claims chart tomorrow. I'd do it tonight but it's getting late.

It's just more of the same anyway. So far.

dd said...

Re: taxes and insurance
Those two items now cost the same as my mortgage plus escrow (ins/taxes) thirty five years ago. Used to joke that would happen and it has. Same payment amount but one less payee.

Luke Smith said...

Echo boomer marriage rate is declining, coupled with the background divorce rate and house-loss rate, I would say it reasons to see a continuation of the trend in the near term.

Stagflationary Mark said...

dd,

If the housing boom had continued permanently, at some point the property taxes would have forced me to eventually downsize (in the name of prosperity no doubt).

Stagflationary Mark said...

Luke Smith,

The declining marriage rate might not be as bad as it sounds. My girlfriend and I have been together for more than a decade and share the same house. I think we're probably the exception and not the norm though.

That said, I would add another item to your list. Renting makes a lot of sense for those who expect to change jobs frequently over their lifetimes. Ideally, it is better to move to where the work is than face a horrendous commute (especially with oil near $100 a barrel). The cost to change residences can rise substantially for homeowners over home renters (especially if they have negative equity in their homes, sigh).

Jazzbumpa said...

Mark -

I'm glad you asked that question.

It shows you're not taking anything for granite.

Cheers!
JzB

Stagflationary Mark said...

Jazzbumpa,

Hahaha! I love a good pun.

It is my belief that housing values were unreasonably aggranitized, so clearly one must factor that in to the analysis. ;)