"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"
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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: "The Lock-In Effect
of Rising Mortgage Rates"
A brief excerpt:
Here is new working paper from Feder...
8 hours ago
4 comments:
Looks like we're due for a steep dropoff.
I think Bernanke's out of QE tools to keep stock prices up.
Scott,
Looks like we're due for a steep dropoff.
At the very least, it would seem that conditions are not perfect for a massive long-term equity rally.
If the rate of inflation turns negative (deflation), then even if GDP were to decrease, there could still be real GDP growth if GDP were to decrease at a rate less than the rate of deflation. The same could be said about your chart - so look on the bright side of life!
There does not seem to be another surge of institutional money like after the dot-com bubble burst. So it must be corporate profits driving stock market growth - which has probably peaked - and of course QE thinking.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WIMFSL
Luke Smith,
The Institutional Money Funds chart looks very interesting. I'm definitely looking forward to playing with that data.
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