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Click to enlarge.
The 3rd order polynomial trend channel in red uses the red data points.
The 3rd order polynomial trend in blue uses all the data points.
I would be among the last to argue that a 3rd order polynomial can accurately predict the future. It can't, especially over the long-term. That said, damn. It's an ugly chart. We all better hope there is absolutely no truth buried within it. Unfortunately, as a permabear since 2004, I do believe there is some truth buried within it (or I would not have made the chart). How much truth remains to be seen.
In any event, I would once again point out that this is not 1982. We are not at the very bottom of the long-term channel with favorable long-term tailwinds. Instead, we are at the top of the channel with winds of a potentially different nature. Sigh.
Is it really any wonder that we're still trapped in ZIRP?
This is not investment advice.
See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
2 comments:
when I was laid off in 2008 the first thing I did that night was cue up this movie, with the hope that it would inspire me to use what I knew would be some months sitting out of the ratrace to live as if I were in the movie, take every day and make my life better incrementally with it.
alas, massive fail, because procrastination.
haven't done much of anything of note in almost 6 years now except waste time on the internet. That, I can do.
Troy,
alas, massive fail, because procrastination.
haven't done much of anything of note in almost 6 years now except waste time on the internet. That, I can do.
For what it is worth, I don't see time as wasted unless you are spending it on things that you do not enjoy. In the grand scheme of things, the universe isn't really going to care one way or another. Right?
Note to self: I should never become a motivational speaker. ;)
What would Master Po say!
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