Sunday, February 2, 2014

Seahawks: A Tale of Two Super Bowl Linear Trend Failures

12 seconds into the game, I opted to do some simple back of envelope extrapolation. The score was 2 to 0 and the game was 1/300th complete (barring overtime).

Expected Final Score: 600 to 0

25 seconds into the game, I saw the error of my folly. My model was breaking down! We were clearly losing momentum!

At halftime, I revised my estimate using a much larger data set. The score was 22 to 0 and the game was 50% complete.

Expected Final Score: 44 to 0

Imagine my surprise when Denver scored a touchdown. Nobody could have expected them to score, on a percentage basis, infinitely more points in the second half than in the first half! Black swan event!

Final Score: 43 to 8

Two linear trend failures and we still won? We sure dodged a bullet up here in Seattle. Nail biter to the very end! Whew!

Go Hawks! :)

1 comment:

Stagflationary Mark said...

February 1, 2014
Record-setting offense why Broncos will win

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — Denver was walloped 40-10 by Seattle in the preseason with Ronnie Hillman fumbling, Montee Ball stumbling and Peyton Manning grumbling.

The Broncos are a much different team now, one that should return to Colorado on Tuesday for a victory parade clutching their third Lombardi Trophy.

40 to 10?
43 to 8?

Yeah, much different. You can't compare 40 with 43 and 10 with 8 without realizing that these are four entirely different numbers.

Okay, now I'm just being mean. Sorry about that, lol. :)