Sunday, September 9, 2007

The Credit Crisis of Titanic Proportions?

Trichet, China's Zhou Say Credit Crisis Effects Limited So Far
The prospects for growth in the economy of the 13 euro nations are ``still good'' although ``uncertainties are augmenting,'' Trichet told Italian television network RAI late Sept. 7.

Titanic was still floating and probably could continue floating well into the next day if nothing else went wrong. - The Last Log of the Titanic, David Geren Brown, 2000

Zhou today in Basel, Switzerland said that China would ``experience some impact,'' if global growth were hurt by the credit crisis.

We've struck an iceberg. - The Last Log of the Titanic, David Geren Brown, 2000

``Our central scenario remains one of a clear recovery,'' European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said yesterday at a conference in Cernobbio, Italy. ``We have been monitoring the situation closely. It's too early to draw a conclusion.''

All of the other lifeboats rowed away from the grim scene because they feared being pulled down by the sinking Titanic or being drowned by the people struggling for their lives in the ocean. - ThinkQuest.org

In China, financial institutions' ``exposure'' to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is ``not significant,'' Zhou said today. ``Unless the situation deteriorates,'' the impact of market turbulence on Chinese financial institutions and the economy is ``up to now estimated to be quite limited.''

As all the survivors scampered onto the Carpathia, they were accommodated by the crew and passengers offering them hot food, drinks, blankets and a bit of brandy. - ThinkQuest.org

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

A wonderful conversation neatly summing up some aspects of the current financial crisis takes place in Joseph Heller's Catch 22:

"From now on I'm thinking only of me."

Major Danby replied indulgently with a superior smile: "But, Yossarian, suppose everybody felt that way?"

"Then", said Yossarian, "I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way, wouldn't I?"

And there you have the kernel of a market failure. The "best" outcome may not happen because each player's incentives lead to the madness of crowds.


http://news.independent.co.uk/business/comment/article2947589.ece

Kevin

Stagflationary Mark said...

Kevin,

That's a great find and a fascinating read.

They could certainly cut interest rates, but then the lemons stay in the financial fruit bowl.

I suspect we'll be needing more financial innovation before this is over. Perhaps a lot more. D'oh!

Anonymous said...

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070910.htm

Mark I tend to think Hussman make more sense when it comes to what FED policy actually does although his fund has treated me well so maybe I'm biased.

Kevin

Stagflationary Mark said...

Kevin,

For what it is worth, I often read Hussman's opinions (mostly when I remember to do it though, since I'm not invested there) and tend to think he's got a good grasp of what is going on.

I'm probably biased too though, since he's clearly willing to entertain the notion of stagflation (precious metals, TIPS).

At that level of yields, with a relatively flat yield curve and still moderate inflation, speculation at the long end of the maturity spectrum can be quite dangerous, and gains can be abruptly reversed. Yes, recessions tend to be good for long-term bonds, but bond yields typically start at much higher levels at the beginning of weak economic periods.

There's that "still" word again. Always scary. Always. And then there's "typically". The opposite of "typically" is probably "uncharted territory". Hope we don't keep heading in that direction. There's a book on my shelf called "The World is Flat". I'd hate to sail over the edge, lol.