Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Home Mortgage Debt Possibility



Here's the most recent quarterly data from the Flow of Funds Accounts.

The data appears (using the power of the eyeball) to be rolling over a bit (no longer parabolic). I added a 5th Order Polynomial simply because it fit the data best and might offer some possible glimpse into where the trend wants to head next (assuming nobody rescues it).

I just want to remind you that if it was THIS easy to predict future trends I probably wouldn't waste my time writing this. I'd be out making some serious money right now. ;)

That being said, it is my belief that the housing market and/or debt bubble is going to continue to be a slow motion train wreck. This chart doesn't exactly change my opinion.

As hawkish as Bernanke's been lately, I can't imagine he'll let several trillion dollars of real estate wealth turn into an "illusion of prosperity" without a fight, especially if he's got a perfectly good monetary printing press simply going to waste. Then again, he might have to in order to protect the dollar. I'm not willing to even offer a prediction on that.

This is not investment advice. I'm just some random anonymous poster on the Internet. What do I know?

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