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Money managers remain optimistic
Whether we’re really at the bottom yet only time will tell, but investment managers seem to be saying we at least may be able to see it from here.
No Leaf Clover - Metallica
Don't it feel right like this?
All the pieces fall to his wish
“Sucker for that quick reward, boy
Sucker for that quick reward,” they say
Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel
Was just a freight train coming your way
Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel
Was just a freight train coming your way
It's coming your way
It's coming your way
Here it comes
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in 14% YoY in October
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This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The
dashed line is the October 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate
(SAAR) of ...
2 hours ago
4 comments:
Stag,
From your link:
Investment managers’ comments indicate they have faith that the Federal Reserve and the government can help the nation dodge a prolonged slowdown.
What happened to faith in a free market economy? The commonly held notion that our government can "print" prosperity is astounding.
That poll was quite revealing. Asset inflation expectations remain well anchored. CPI inflation expectations are also well anchored - even in the face of soaring commodity prices. For me, those beliefs are the important indicators.
It's a good thing we don't use real money.
MAB,
I was telling my girlfriend yesterday that if this is truly the bottom of a recession and we will grow our way out of it, then what will the price of oil do? Will it also rebound from these depressed levels (heavy sarcasm)? If so, think how much wealth we'll be able to tap. I'm picturing GTEW (gas tank equity withdrawal) to replace MEW (mortgage equity withdrawal). Just be sure to keep your tank full to maximize your profits once the fun hits.
Hey, I wonder if there is money to be made creating a gas tank security system that could be sold to those who drive Hummers. Should the price of gasoline continue to rise, people might pay $1000 for a device that only allows you to access your tank once a thorough DNA and retina scan is performed. Just a thought.
That being said, perhaps oil is not good at any price though. Perhaps the time to buy oil was when it was $11 a barrel and not $111 a barrel. Perhaps that's just me using old school math again. I'm not predicting the future price of oil much though. I have no desire to be long and I have little desire to be short. I'm staying the heck out of the financial casinos these days.
I do feel like I can remain stagflationary long-term though. I don't think we'll be seeing $11 oil again. I also don't think I need to predict $1111 oil (the "obvious" progression from $11 oil to $111 oil to $1111 oil) to remain concerned about the future.
And lastly...
The Great Chinese Crash of 2008
http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2008/04/07/the-great-chinese-crash-of-2008.aspx
Have you heard a lot about Chinese stocks lately? Neither have I.
All that printed prosperity that we are sending China through our massive trade deficit and overworked monetary and fiscal economic policies isn't helping China as much as it once was. Go figure.
Decoupled my @$$ (extra emphasis on the $$).
(Unfortunately, it has been a good era to be a heckler. I'm expecting MANY more years of solid material to work off of.)
It is hard to take seriously the message in the linked article. These are the same folks who couldn't foresee any problems down the road at the peak of the housing bubble and still refuse to accept the depth of the mess we currently face. Even more damning, they repeatedly denied the existence of any problems until faced with implosion of their illusory wealth bubble when they started screaming for the FED to step in and save their @$$ (and their summer house in the Hamptons).
kwark,
It is hard to take seriously the message in the linked article.
My favorite part is in the headline itself. They remain optimistic.
First, remaining optimistic implies they didn't understand the impact of the credit, housing, and energy markets impact on the economy. It isn't like they are suddenly turning optimistic now that they see what they think is a bottom. Nope, been optimistic all along it seems.
Second, optimistic has its own set of problems when it comes to investing.
Optimistic
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?db=dictionary&q=optimistic
disposed to take a favorable view of events or conditions and to expect the most favorable outcome
I think it is safe to say that a great many gamblers lost their fortunes in Vegas expecting the most favorable outcome.
Here's a crazy thought. What's the most likely outcome? I don't think I'm being pessimistic asking such a question. My answer long-term seems to be a combination of slowing growth and/or stubborn inflation (a stagflation "friendly" environment). I don't see much of reason to change my mind, but I think I'm just playing the odds. If I'm wrong, I don't expect to be more than half wrong (which should be good enough in the world of investing).
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