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I came up with this theory back in 2006 after reading one bull's take on Sirius. Today seems like a good day to revisit it.
2006
Rational Investor Strategy
The Rational Investor strives to capitalize on pricing inefficiencies in the domestic stock market often caused by irrational behavior and 'herd' mentality among investors.
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We believe it is difficult to impossible to make money chasing the hottest trend, and we often do the opposite of the fashionable trade. Ultimately, our goal is to generate positive returns regardless of the prevailing direction in the market and to do so rationally.
August 9, 2006
Get Sirius
Profits in the market are made by acquiring shares of quality companies with superior growth prospects at discounted prices. If that doesn't define Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI, news, msgs), I don't know what does. Poor market sentiment is artificially deflating the price of Sirius and that creates opportunity for you.
Don't miss out on owning what I view to be one of the better long-term growth stories of this millennium. Regardless of what happens in the economy, I feel quite confident in stating that the next generation will view terrestrial radio as being similar to manual transmissions.
It would seem that the next generation is now viewing fee based satellite radio as being eerily similar to manual transmissions.
Sirius vs. General Motors (The Chart)
The similarities don't end there though.
February 11, 2009
Maybe satellite radio is a bad business model
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Sirius XM Radio, which reportedly is on the verge of declaring bankruptcy, has problems that go far beyond the dismal state of the economy.
The idea of charging consumers a modest fee in return for superior programming and sterling reception quality may not be viable. Perhaps the industry's entire business model was flawed from the start and the nation had to experience this devastating recession before people reached that conclusion.
February 9, 2009
GM in Talks to Take Back Part of Delphi
"It's fair to ask the question of why the taxpayer could be stuck with the problem of bailing out GM's business model," said a banker who has done extensive work with GM and Delphi but isn't involved in the current negotiations.
Hey, there's no sarcasm this time. It is just 100% pure unadulterated heckle!
Too bad I can't charge a fee for the premium nature of this content. In fact, I've yet to figure out how to make money posting any of my thoughts and/or charts. I think there must be a serious deflationary flaw in my business model. ;)
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.9% Year-over-year
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From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 November
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons,
according to CoStar’s latest ...
3 hours ago
11 comments:
Stag,
Sirius XM Radio, which reportedly is on the verge of declaring bankruptcy, has problems that go far beyond the dismal state of the economy.
Question - Surely you're not Sirius?
Answer - I am serious. And stop calling me Shirley. - bastardized the movie Airplane
"The idea of charging consumers a modest fee in return for superior programming and sterling reception quality may not be viable"
The reception was good but the playlists were boring. They kept on playing the same old krep for too long.
mab,
I saw that movie in the theater with my family. It was especially funny because my grandmother kept asking me, "Do you think that's funny?" It also didn't hurt that my mom's name is Shirley!
Anonymous,
I just can't ever picture myself paying to hear someone else's playlist. Further, even if It thought the songs were REALLY good then I'd probably want to buy them anyway so I could put them on my playlsts.
Stag,
Check out the pessimism:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ddaa47f4-f79b-11dd-a284-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Okay, so half failed. By definition that means half didn't fail. The glass is half full, not half empty.
I'm sure this eCONomy can refill that glass with a second half recovery.
That reporter needs to read a few Ben Stein articles.
mab,
By my count, we won't need a 2009 second half refill.
Assuming we got our 2nd half refills in 2007 and 2008 as predicted, the glass should already be completely full.
Oops! There goes my optimism again. I failed to notice the cracked condition of the glass.
I guess I just prefer to see the dark side of things. The glass is always half empty. And cracked. And I just cut my lip on it. And chipped a tooth. - Janeane Garofalo
mab,
One more thought. I keep telling myself that there was 75% employment during the Great Depression. The majority of people had jobs. I also keep telling myself that I am not Dennis Kneale. I have no idea why I keep telling myself these things.
I keep telling myself that there was 75% employment during the Great Depression. The majority of people had jobs.
Good point. The realist in me will add that most of the investors in the following Wisdom Tree ETFs still have half their money left to lose too.
http://finance.yahoo.com/etf/browser/mkt?c=0&f=45
And since there is still money left to lose, we certainly don't want to stifle financial "innovation."
mab,
The realist in me will add that most of the investors in the following Wisdom Tree ETFs still have half their money left to lose too.
With Jeremy Siegel offering his wisdom how can they possibly lose more than half?
November 4, 2005
How Will Ben Bernanke Affect Your Returns?
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/1391
Nonetheless the new chairman's predilections will be to err on the side of additional stimulus if the economy falters. His steadfast resolve to avoid deflation should make bonds far less attractive to investors. One of the reasons bond yields are so low today is that investors want to hold government and high-grade bonds in case the U.S. spins into a Japanese-style deflation. With Bernanke at the helm this outcome is virtually precluded.
On the other hand, stocks should benefit from a slightly easier monetary policy. Deflation is death for stocks since falling output prices reduce profits and debt payments become far more burdensome. Deflation smashed worldwide stock markets in the 1930s and the Japanese stock market in the 1990s. Bernanke will be willing to risk a tad more inflation to ensure these grim outcomes never happen again. The bottom line: Stock investors should be all smiles with President Bush's new choice of Fed governor.
That brings me to a new "all smiles" speech idea for Ben Bernanke.
Deflation: Making Sure We Grin and Bear "It" Here
Oh yeah, I'm feelin' the pun wave now. Woohoo!
Stag,
Oh yeah, I'm feelin' the pun wave now. Woohoo!
I'm feeling it too. And it shirley would be great if we could spread some cheer. Maybe we should start a punzi scheme.
A punzi scheme is just like a ponzi scheme except it is way more humorous and fun.
We can use phrases like - "let us get big returns on your investments."
We'll kill them with kindness too.
mab,
We'll kill them with kindness too.
We've got to be cruel to be kind, in the right measure.
1979
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JJ7oGHwMTI
We can use phrases like - "let us get big returns on your investments."
The public is getting smarter every day. Might I suggest...
MAB and STAG's Commodity Kindness Fund
Lettuce gets big returns on your investments!
Your cashews become our cash news!
Your seed money will be buying lent ills and peanuts!
These should probably be radio ads and not something we'd want written down as part of a legal document. It would also be good if the announcer spoke quickly and with much bravado.
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