Thursday, April 21, 2011

Real Core Retail Sales (Musical Tribute)



The chart shows the total retail and food services sales minus the amount spent at food and beverage stores, food services and drinking places, and gasoline stations. I then adjusted that amount for inflation and population.

Is this new trend sustainable? I say no.

As seen in the upper left hand corner of my blog, my short-term mood is currently inflationary. I think it may be temporary.




Source Data:
U.S. Census: Monthly & Annual Retail Trade
St. Louis Fed: CPI
St. Louis Fed: Population

12 comments:

getyourselfconnected said...

Well maybe if we all buy little red corvetts and raspberry berets?

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

The kind you find in a second hand store?

How is THAT going to help? Hahaha! ;)

(This is an inside joke to those who know Prince songs.)

getyourselfconnected said...

I think 2nd hand stores are GDP neutral but who knows the way the figure this stuff!

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

Sears should get into the 2nd hand store business before it is too late. Or can you buy raspberry berets at Sears now? I wouldn't know. I haven't been in one for years. D'oh!

getyourselfconnected said...

The back to school clothes trip (the only time me and my family got clothes in the old days) was always a Sears trip! Long gone now.

Anonymous said...

I just sold my silver today. I had been out of the country, too lazy, etc., and it worked to my advantage this time.

Found a store by chance that gave me Spot+1% buying my loot.

This means silver will keep going up so I can feel like an idiot.

Coba

Stagflationary Mark said...

Coba,

This means silver will keep going up so I can feel like an idiot.

That's generally how it works. I can speak from silver experience on that one, lol.

Just keep repeating, "I made SO much more than investors in 3-month treasury bills." I can't say that it is perfect, but it does seem to help.

Here's some trivia. If I had bought 3-month treasury bills when I bought silver in 2004 and kept reinvesting until today then I'd be up 16%. That's roughly what inflation has done. The CPI was up about 18% over the period.

Silver did about 3x better than that and I only held silver for about a year and a half. Go figure. For the past 5 years I had the proceeds in a 5-year TIPS which only added to silver's returns. It appreciated 10% and paid me 2.38% interest each year along the way.

The tricky part for you is determining what to do with your proceeds. What are your plans? Brace for another deflationary event? Ride some other risky asset? Not many easy answers in my opinion. That TIPS bond just matured. I have it sitting in cash but I'm not all that comfortable about it. What's new though?

Stagflationary Mark said...

I should point out for those just tuning in that the bulk of my nest egg continues to sit in TIPS (mostly long-term) and I-Bonds. That cash I speak of is intended to fund my short-term living expenses (over the next 4 years). It is earning 1% in an online savings account unless I see a better "safe" opportunity appear.

I also plan to buy I-Bonds again in May. I buy every year though. It is hardly news.

Anonymous said...

I only held the silver for 6 months or so, and made 100% profit, so I think I did well.

I will be using the proceeds to live on for a while, which means my divvies will be untouched for a while.

May re-weight my stocks away from non-oil items. Canadians still have currency advantage, too.

Coba

Anonymous said...

"The proposed funds include one or more to invest a part of China's foreign reserves in energy and precious metal markets and another that could intervene in foreign exchange markets,"

They 3 Trillion in reserves.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42743681

I guess the bubble will continue...plus, if China pushes up gas prices, they may very well sink the US economy back into recession.

They must be very careful, if you ask me. I think they should not try to save their reserves by doing this. A US recession could trigger a recession in China, which could be far more dangerous for the regime than just slowly losing value on their 3 trillion.

It must be getting to the point where the cannot stop inflation without a currency move, which they have put off for months.

Coba

Anonymous said...

Let me guess...the oil and gold funds will make money that the currency fund will then lose propping "down" a weak RMB?

Or vice versa?

Coba

Stagflationary Mark said...

Coba,

May we live in interesting times!

Wish granted.