Thursday, September 13, 2012

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.14

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

In sharp defiance of today's stock market rally, I am actually slapping an exponential trend failure label on this series. I am also adding the word "Extreme" to the post's title. I do not believe that we will ever return to that red trend line (nearly 3 years in the making). I cannot say this with 100% certainty of course, but I am definitely close enough for government work.

Speaking of government work, if higher oil prices will miraculously create better employment conditions, then by all means bring it on. With oil at $98 per barrel, what's the worst that could happen?

Click to enlarge.

In other news, last week's numbers were revised to the upside. That's hardly shocking. It marks the 63rd straight weekly revision to the upside. You can practically set your clock by it.

And finally, how long will the party last this time? I guess it all depends on the positioning of the smoke and mirrors relative to the dogs and ponies. If done properly, a nearly infinite supply of show animals might appear. Probably best to keep in mind that many of them are an illusion though. But what's new?

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.13

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims


Troy said...

Claims Rate age 18-55

This is from interpolating the census population data between 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 and using that as the denominator for annualized weekly claims.

So during the early 1980s one out of 4 adults filed a claim.

We were peaking at one out of 5 in 2009 . . .


Fed printing $500B/yr is actually something of a money drop, but more of a bank-shot drop.

What we need is the Fed leasing SUVs for their money distribution . . .

Stagflationary Mark said...

What we need is the Fed leasing SUVs for their money distribution . . .

You can't give the money directly to the people so that they can pay their debts. It has to go to the banks once they don't pay!

Sorry. That's just more gallows sarcasm.

Charles Kiting said...

Maybe Ben thinks raising the price of oil will increase the number of job in the middle east and people won't be so angry there.

WV: Reduty. Has an appropriate Soviet ring to it.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Charles Kiting,

You might be onto something.

He'll do whatever it takes to sustain the unsustainable system.