Thursday, September 6, 2012

Initial Claims Danger v.13


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Lucky #13 and the danger is still here? Go figure.

Those inspired by today's lower initial claims data point may wish to consider the following chart.


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That's 62 straight weeks of revisions to the upside. A betting man might therefore add 3,000 onto today's initial claims estimate. Some conspiracy minded individuals might claim that this is a presidential election year tactic, but that would not explain most of 2009, most of 2010, and most of 2011.

What would be the point of lowering it by 3,000 only to revise it upwards a week later? It's not like main street gets up early every Thursday morning glued to CNBC to see what initial claims did. They are much too busy watching Jim Cramer's Mad Money in the evenings, lol. Sigh.

Here's my non-sinister theory for what it is worth. The DOL's automated system can't estimate structural changes in our economy much better than PhDs sitting in ivory towers can.

Just opinions of course!

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.12

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims

7 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

I hope someone finds the last chart useful. I had to manually sift through 3 1/2 years of weekly initial claims reports to generate it.

I couldn't help myself. I wanted to know what the hell were in those bags.

Troy said...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ah8

This is the "Good Times" index I guess, net hires less new claims. Doesn't get over zero all that often.

Chic's song of the same name came out in June 1979, I was thinking those were probably Good Times, but I see zoomed in that we'd just come off of Good Times by then. Maybe when they were recording the single it was still Good Times.

This got me wondering about the Usual Suspect wrt Bad Times, and, sure enough:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=aha shows that the Fed was sure f---ing with Carter his whole administration.

People slag on Carter but nobody else had to deal with a Fed slamming the brakes on the party like Volcker.

Extending out to 1985, we can see Reagan generally enjoyed loosening policy:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=aha (love the query code!)

and the subsequent return of the Good Times once the Fed was in the single digits again.

Troy said...

oops, last chart out to 1985:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ahd

Troy said...

oops2, PAYEMS is monthly data and claims is weekly, so the twain never does meet:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ahj

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

This is the "Good Times" index I guess, net hires less new claims. Doesn't get over zero all that often.

I'm not sure where you are going with this. Net hires already has initial claims built into it (sort of).

Net Hires = Hires - Fired (Or Quit)

If we then subtract initial claims we are basically saying...

Hires - Fired (Or Quit) - Fired (Or Quit)

It doesn't really surprise me that it doesn't get over zero all that often. It's heavily weighted towards the firing (or quitting) part.

mab said...

The revisions are a NAKED SHORT ON THE CURRENCY! You can't escape the math. We're DOOMED!

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

Damn that math! It's like Candy Store vs. Candy Mountain!