Saturday, September 1, 2012

10-Year Treasury Yield

Click to enlarge.

The trends in the chart have lasted 26+ years so far. One wonders how much money was lost betting against them.

August 22, 2012
Yahoo Message Board: TBT and TLT are driving me crazy

I can't get it right. I sold my TBT, threw the towel, bought some TLT, made a few % points profit, then recently TLT tanked, sold, bought TBT, made a few % points profit, now profits gone back to even...

When are we going to get a lasting trend you can trade on?

Trying to guess the interest rates market is not as easy as it seems. It is driving me crazy.

I still believe rates will go higher, much higher, the question is when?

I do not know.

Disclosure: Long TIPS and I Bonds since 2000. Long EE Bonds since 2010. This is not investment advice.

See Also:
The Death of Real Yields (October 21, 2007)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates


Stagflationary Mark said...

This is what the CEO of an online brokerage firm sees when he reads that message board post.

"sold... threw in the towel... bought... sold... bought... back to even... lasting trend... trying to guess... I still believe..."

Troy said...

"Of the 100 million Americans who will join us in the next 37 years, half will be immigrants or their children. In the next few decades, 97% of the world's population growth will occur in the developing world; the U.S. is the largest developed country in the world that is still growing at a healthy clip. That matters, strategically, economically and politically, as developed countries try to maintain their services, their militaries, their economic strength. If there is already a gap in energy and optimism between the U.S. and Europe, it looks likely only to widen in the next generation."

that's a quote from some population study, included on this interesting map.


"I still believe rates will go higher, much higher, the question is when?"

This person has yet to receive the satori available in this graph:


Rates will go up when that leverage goes down.

We'll be speaking Spandarin then, I suspect. (Only 600 google matches on that, LOL.

Stagflationary Mark said...


This person has yet to receive the satori...

Without satori, there can be no Dai Senryaku ("Grand Strategy")! ;)

TJandTheBear said...

That chart suggests it was a killer "channel trade" over the years. ;-)

Stagflationary Mark said...


In hindsight, I did fairly well in timing my largest purchases. The big ones were all near the top of the channel (2000, 2006-2008, 2011). I can only imagine what Jeremy Siegel must be thinking now.

It is interesting to me that we're now at the bottom of the channel and we aren't even supposed to be in a recession. Being at the bottom generally means that we are.

I can say with 99.999% certainty that we will make it to the top of the channel again. If nothing else, the top of the channel hits 0.0% on May 25, 2026. I'm leaving myself a 0.001% margin of error in case 10-year treasury rates are forced to continually decline even after they hit 0.0%, lol. Sigh.