Saturday, August 10, 2013

One Theory for the Recent TIPS Buying Opportunity

The following chart shows the spread between the 30-year TIPS yield and the 20-year TIPS yield.

Click to enlarge.

The spread was clearly following the surface of Jeremy Siegel's head. I factored in something that most investors did not though. Yields would bounce off his left ear! Genius!

In all seriousness, we almost experienced an inverted yield curve between the 20-year TIPS and the 30-year TIPS. In hindsight (at least so far), the 20-year TIPS therefore became a relatively good buying opportunity. If the bond market is the stock market's smarter brother, then it would be hard to see it in this chart. Once the panic began, crazy things happened.

Some investors might find it difficult to invest in TIPS with his eyes peering at us like that, but all I see is Kilroy!

According to one story, it was reported that German intelligence found the phrase on captured American equipment. This began leading Hitler to believe that Kilroy could be the name or codename of a high-level Allied spy.

I'm not suggesting that Professor Kilroy is a high-level Allied spy, but there have been days when I've been convinced that he's working in counter-intelligence.

Jeremy Siegel

Some have criticized Professor Siegel for being bullish on the stock market back in 2000. In a BusinessWeek interview in May 2000 when asked about the stock market, he replied: "Seven percent per year [average] real returns on stocks is what I find over nearly two centuries. I don't see persuasive reasons why it should be any different from that over the intermediate run. In the short run, it could be almost anything."

Shame on me for creating this chart. I just couldn't help myself! I have a twisted sense of humor and this was way too good to pass up. :)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

1 comment:

Stagflationary Mark said...

For what it is worth, I think real yields have a distinct possibility of temporarily spiking higher during the next recession. How high real yields could spike depends upon how much deflation we actually see.

I'm not planning on it though, especially since TIPS yields are also tied to real GDP growth (recessions are a definite drag on real GDP growth). That's my main "bet" if you want to call it that. I am not at all optimistic about long-term real GDP growth, especially from here.