Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Retail Sales for July 2013 (Musical Tribute)

August 12, 2013
"You Can't Lose on Stocks" - Jeremy Siegel

It is my opinion that the market is "totally spooked" because the retail trade data comes out tomorrow and this ballgame is in its 13th inning (still tied ZIRP to ZIRP).

So just how bad is the report? Let's take a look.

Click to enlarge.

Welcome to the 13th inning.

Source Data:
U.S. Census: Retail Trade


Joseph Constable said...

What the hell?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Joseph Constable,

One month does not a new trend make, especially since the data is noisy.

That said, there's no denying that it was an absolutely horrible sales report.

August 13, 2013
U.S. retail sales data points to improving economy

"Households may be spending a bit more freely in response to the recent gains in employment," said Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics in London.

I stand corrected. There is denial apparently.

Hey, at least they used a very appropriate photo within the link. It shows a grocery shopper in a Wal-Mart.

Joseph Constable said...

Did you mis-calculate? The last line is Food services and drinking places increased 270 which would be added to the 420 on the pie chart to give 690 and all others -252?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Joseph Constable,

Did you mis-calculate?

First of all, that's a great observation. It's awesome that you noticed.

It was my intent to show just the money mostly spent on the most basic of necessities.

I do not consider money spent on food services and drinking places to be basic necessities. I think of that as discretionary.

However, you make a valid point. The data is even worse if you factor in that restaurants are providing a combination of basic necessities and luxury/convenience/entertainment.

Let's split the difference and say that restaurants, on average, provide 50% basic necessities and 50% luxury (having someone else prepare your food and clean your plates is definitely a luxury).

That would mean money spent on non-basic necessities was actually negative $117 million for the month.

($18 million - $270 million / 2) = -$117 million

Bad report!

Stagflationary Mark said...

As a side note, I see that they did not update the food and drinking places data within their link (yet). I had to go back to the database itself to find it. Did you do the same?

It actually freaked me out a bit because I nearly thought I created this chart based on June's data. Yikes!

That was not the case though. Whew! :)

Stagflationary Mark said...

The stock market has apparently decided to rally and the treasuries are selling off thanks to all this "good" news.

It's just a guess, but I'd suggest that we're still in the pump phase of pump and dump.

The last culprit is the media. No longer the watchdog, they have become the lapdog of the establishment. Promoting whatever lies and propaganda the government or big banks tell them.

I'd also argue that there was some dumping last week heading into this report, like someone knew ahead of time.

And how would they know ahead of time?

November 26, 2010
This Black Friday, Somebody’s Watching While You Shop

The satellites snap pictures of hundreds of shopping malls, and analysts painstakingly count the cars in the parking lots of each one, looking to pin down the fill rates of each parking lot.

The retail investor doesn't stand a chance.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Oops. I said...

That would mean money spent on non-basic necessities was actually negative $117 million for the month.

I meant to say...

That would mean the growth of money spent on non-basic necessities was actually negative $117 million for the month.

Stagflationary Mark said...

The CPI data comes out in a few days.

I think I'll do another chart using inflation adjusted numbers and population growth so that we can see real growth per capita.

That will be one fugly chart.

But you know, it's a good report I'm told: "U.S. retail sales data points to improving economy".