Friday, December 6, 2013

Annual Nonfarm Payroll Growth per Capita Euphoria!

The following chart shows the annual change in nonfarm payrolls divided by the population.

Click to enlarge.

This time it's REALLY permanent!

Jaws: The Revenge

The increasing number of sequels in the Jaws series was spoofed in the 1989 film Back to the Future Part II (which was produced by Steven Spielberg and featured Jaws 3 star Lea Thompson), when Marty McFly travels to the year 2015 and sees a theater showing Jaws 19, (fictionally directed by Max Spielberg) with the tagline "This time it's REALLY personal!". This alludes to the tagline of Jaws: The Revenge: "This time it's personal." After being "attacked" by a promotional volumetric image of the shark outside the theatre, Marty says "the shark still looks fake."

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Rob Dawg said...

You need to stop enabling HCN. With almost all the voices of reason shouted down your good stuff lends credence to all the bad stuff others spew there that now goes unchallenged.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

I'm amazed at how many people seem to think that this is all just a normal cyclical recovery and that the worst is absolutely behind us.

It's like we're all sitting in the intensive care unit looking at the struggling patient and saying, "What a strong recovery he's making!"

The patient is not strong. He's on frickin' life support. People on life support are not resilient. Any little thing could send them into crisis mode again. At best, the patient is currently stable.

Permanently stable though? I'd definitely not bet on that outcome.

Rob Dawg said...

The cancerous leg of FIRE caused us to fall down and break an arm. The arm is healing nicely. Good news.

Rob Dawg said...

Oh, and the cancerous leg of FIRE is doing even better thanks to capturing all the medicine intended for the arm.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Don't forget the kick to the teeth when we were down!

"I guess I just prefer to see the dark side of things. The glass is always half empty. And cracked. And I just cut my lip on it. And chipped a tooth." - Janeane Garofalo

dearieme said...


Stagflationary Mark said...


Yeah. I saw that he had capitulated recently. Great timing! Not.

That said...

But I'm not sure any of us can wait that long. Playing it safe, as my good friend Chris Cole wrote last year may be the greatest risk of all." So the mouse it is.

Sounds a bit like me buying long-term TIPS and I-Bonds. That said, I did not patiently wait in cash for interest rates to rise nor did I swing for the fences in desperation once it was clear I was losing the game (like he seems to be doing by capitulating *after* one of the biggest stock market rallies of all time).

He was definitely wrong in a major way once. Makes it hard for me to take his reasoning seriously now, especially since he's saying that I should ignore basic sensibilities and embrace the long-term insanity. Thanks, but no thanks.

I've been a permabear since 2004. My long-term inflation protected bonds inch forward predictably. I've avoided a meteoric rise in the stock market, an epic crash, another meteoric rise, and whatever comes next. No complaints. I have absolutely no desire to swing for the fences again in my lifetime. Perhaps he knows where the edge of the ledge is now, but I sure don't.

THE EDGE, there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over. - Hunter S. Thompson

Troy said...

I recently posted a related data dump here:

don't know where I was going with that . . .

Stagflationary Mark said...


I sure tire of the "jobs will be there because they always have" argument. I'm just not a believer. I don't require nearly as many services as this economy thinks I do.

I guess we should be thankful that I'm in the minority. I eat in restaurants far, far less than most do. It isn't just cost. It's also lack of desire. There are other things I'd generally rather do with my time than dressing up, driving, and spending 45+ minutes eating a meal. (And since I drive so little I also don't need my car "serviced" nearly as often.)