Saturday, December 14, 2013

Where Is the Cornpocalypse?

December 9, 2013
Farmers Hoard Corn as Prices Drop

If yields are "anywhere close to normal, we will really be buried in corn," he says.

Adjusted for relatively modest overall consumer price inflation as reported by the government, exported corn is currently trading at early 1990s levels (as seen in the following chart).


Click to enlarge.

For what it is worth, I think corn prices could easily go either way from here. I have no opinion other than to say that the farmers hoarding corn are definitely betting big in the casino. Good luck on that.

However, storing corn for too long "definitely" poses risks for farmers, says Scott Stoller, a grain merchandiser at agricultural-advisory firm AgPerspective Inc. in Dixon, Ill.

You think? Ben Bernanke must be very pleased to see so much risk taking though. Corn prices only go up! Every corn kernel needs a place to live! They just aren't making any more corn! Okay, maybe that last one isn't quite true. I got caught up in the housing bubble mentality. Probably read too much David Lereah. Sorry about that!

December 11, 2010
John Williams of ShadowStats Warns Hyperinflation Will Start in the Next Couple Months!

Williams is a respected economist who has a high level understanding of the fundamental numbers behind our economy, so his forecasts and recommendations should not be taken lightly...

It's been 36 months so far. Took the predictions very lightly. Still am. Yawn. If anything, perhaps I should brush up on my Japanese in case we're stuck in ZIRP (like they have been) for the rest of my life. Seriously.

This is not investment advice.

See Also:
Bananas for Silver!
Hyperinflation Theories Poned Again

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

21 comments:

Rob Dawg said...

Meat prices will stabilize. I have been watching corn futes. Dropping before gasoline so this isn't just an ethanol play. Deflation at the zero bound. What is a word for the obverse of stagflation? Pultraction? Hoardcession? Implodonomics? Spiralconomy?

dearieme said...

Deflateageddon

Mr Slippery said...

ZIRP money dynamics are interesting as Japan has shown. Start with an economy maxed out on credit, throw in a real estate and stock market bust, and you are left with a massive bad debt hangover.

Japan is not far from having the interest on its debt exceed tax revenue. That will be a fun Keynesian inflection point.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Hoardcession?

The hoard session eventually created a hoardcession! Yes!

Let's also reserve whoredcession for Eliot Spitzer. Way too much unsustainable whoreding! The guy just wasn't thinking a head!

Shame on me for going there. I cannot resist puns. Bad Mark! Bad! Bad! :)

Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

Deflateageddon

Hidden Agendas + Suburb Hoarding!

Hiddenburb: A housing deflation of epic proportions! Nobody could have seen it coming!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

Japan is not far from having the interest on its debt exceed tax revenue. That will be a fun Keynesian inflection point.

Japan just needs to cut that interest rate in half again! They'll need new monetary tools to manage it of course.

Electron micro-monetary scopes for the win! Can't price fix the tiny thing if they can't actually see the tiny thing, lol. Sigh.

Rob Dawg said...

When do we get the Bitcoin/Gold currency death cross?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Since there will only be a maximum of 21 million bitcoins and there are 7 billion people on the planet, some people will be forced to do without.

Let me be among the first to sacrifice myself now and pledge to never own a bitcoin. This will therefore allow someone else to own a bitcoin instead of me.

I make no such pledge about Bitcoin 2.0 though, should it ever be introduced as a new and improved alternate alternate currency (two alternates for version 2). That one I gotta have! I might even, dare I say, buy two digital virtual coins!

One to caress! One to invest!

Mwuhahaha!

Greed is good grief. Really good, lol. Sigh.

Luke Smith said...

Hoarding is a part of commodity speculation, in this case. People in China were hoarding cotton a couple years back. There were some analyst (perhaps mostly in retail fashion) who warned that clothing prices were soon to sky-rocket.

Never happened.

Now we are dealing with an apparent cotton glut despite all the hoarding. Even cotton goes bad. Corn, too, will go bad.

Rob Dawg said...

Then it was copper.

AllanF said...

I seem to recall reading about an ethanol glut a few months back. I'm sure everyone built their models to assume an ever increasing miles-driven number, it worked so well with home prices, why not. I also seem to recall that's been barely flat (raw number) to falling (per capita) for about 5 years now.

Rob Dawg said...

Even with the subsidies ethanol was too expensive. When the price fell then the producers were no longer viable. There is no sweet spot where ethanol as fuel makes economic sense.

AllanF said...

I agree ethanol makes no economic sense. However, if people were being forced to buy the stuff by govt diktat, then there was at least a market for it. If people are outright driving less, then that sort of throws a wrench in those plans.

Rob Dawg said...

"I agree ethanol makes no economic sense."

SAY WHAT?!?

Surely you meant ethanol AS FUEL makes no sense. Sir.

AllanF said...

:) Indeed. Thanks for allowing me the opportunity to clarify myself.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Luke Smith,

“Et tu, Brute? Then fall cotton!”

Or something like that. I'm quoting from memory. ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

“Et tu, Brute? Then fall copper!”

Is that it? Memory's not what it once was. Seem to recall it started with a "c".

Stagflationary Mark said...

AllanF,

Does Salad Oil Dissolve in Ethanol?

Salad? Still stuck on that "c" word. Drawing a blank. It's some Roman emperor. I'm sure of it.

The Emperor's Rice Salad

Bah! That's not it.

Tasty Sky Dragon Emperor's Salad

Increases Evasion by 30, All Elemental Defenses by 60, and Magic Resist by 60 points. In addition, Flight Time increases by 90 seconds for 45m.

Close enough for government work!

Rob Dawg said...

Are you guys talking about ancient feuds or modern Mediterranean tax avoidance?

AllanF said...

I have no idea, Rob. These comments jumped the shark after Mark's first post. :) It could be worse. He could be one of those bloggers that sock-puppets in his own comment threads. Then again, I've never seen you and him in the same room at the same time. Hmmm.

Stagflationary Mark said...

AllanF,

I would never sock-puppet! (And neither would I!)

There's just one of me! (I also agree!)

Pot Smokers and Schizophrenic Patients May Share Similar Brain Changes

We don't smoke pot! (And neither do we!)

Oh, oh. Seems to be getting worse! (Agreed!)

In all seriousness, I've never even smoked a cigarette. No desire to acquire acquired tastes, especially those that may someday kill me. Go figure. :)