Posts
Click to enlarge.
I know what you are thinking. Okay, sure. That's definitely a peak. It can't be the ultimate peak though. Our population is growing and the future is so bright I gotta wear shades!
Not so fast. Let's put that same data on a log chart. On a log chart, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.
Click to enlarge.
That's not straight. It's curving exactly like a baseball in flight would, and when I say exactly I mean with an r-squared of 0.995.
Click to enlarge.
If the 80+ year long-term trend continues, only the wealthiest among us will be flying in planes someday. How's that for a kick to the long-term prosperity gonads? It isn't just flying either. Driving looks mighty suspect as well. Just doing my part to add some perspective! Sigh.
Despair.com: Perspective
Less is more. Unless you're standing next to the one with more. Then less just looks pathetic.
This post inspired by Rob Dawg who pointed me to a whole new world of FRED quantity indices (in the comments found here).
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Public Air Transportation
St. Louis Fed: Public Air Transportation (Natural Log)
9 comments:
Wow, not even adjusted for population.
Mr Slippery,
We'll know it is really bad when the jumbo jet tire rental businesses form, lol. Sigh.
Here's a fun mind blowing adventure.
1. Look at the travel charts again.
2. Look at the chart in this link.
3. Attempt to unblow your mind.
I'm stuck on step 3. I can't do it, lol. Sigh.
We might have some pretty nasty deflation before governments try to promote severe inflation as an answer to it.
Maybe I should invest in Fixed Interest Gilts for a while: the irredeemable War Loan is paying 4.38%p.a. That would require me to time an exit well.
Or if deflation lasted for eight years or more, I could do nicely rolling down the yield curve from ten years to two years. Here's the yield curve.
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Bonds
On the other hand, we have a car to replace. First things first.
dearieme,
If anyone can eventually turn deflation into inflation then I'd guess the UK can.
As Clinton would say, I feel your pain.
Mark,
That peak is suspiciously close to the instigation of the TSA. There is probably a bit of noise in the signal.
Still, it does look set to level off at best.
But I suspect buggy-whips had an S-curve to them, too.
Neil,
The buggy was replaced by the car.
Perhaps the airplane is being replaced with Skype.
Tag line:
When almost being there is almost good enough
Skype? Yes, partly. I assure you that a two- or three-person Skype meeting is often more productive than flying 6 hours (plus 2 for the TSA) each way to attend a "kickoff" meeting.
With 3D printing coming along nicely, the comfy-chair revolution has commenced in earnest.
Post a Comment