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Black Friday Weekend Spending Drop Pressures U.S. Stores
The first spending decline on a Black Friday weekend since 2009 reinforced projections for a lackluster holiday, increasing chances retailers will extend the deep discounts already hurting their profit margins.
We seem to be coming in a bit shy of Accenture's prediction of an 11% increase so far. Who could have seen that coming? Unfortunately, that is not the scariest quote of the article.
This year, 65 percent of Americans said they were living paycheck to paycheck, up from 61 percent last year, in part because their purchasing power has been eroded by higher costs, according to research from Booz.
We are so @#$%ed.
14 comments:
Hey, at the least the vast majority of Americans aren't living paycheck to paycheck. We need a few more years of ZIRP from QEeen Yellen to get there, with the full time job limiting rocket booster of Obamacare. If we can create more part time jobs, we can really increase that paycheck to paycheck number. I think the government is doing its part.
Mr Slippery,
80% has a special meaning to me. Forgive me if I've shared this before.
I was preparing a demo of our product for the head of Sierra and I was not happy that the icon to launch the game was showing up in black and white.
So there I am fixing it and I was in a hurry. My general manager told me not to worry about it. She said, and I quote, "Sometimes 80% is good enough." I replied, "Yeah, about 80% of the time." I laughed and smiled to let her know that I was just trying to be funny more than anything but deep down I wanted it fixed.
So, I kept working on it and got it fixed just before we presented the demo. Here were the first words out of his mouth.
"Nice icon."
I kid you not. It was at that point that I took a look over the general manager and not suprisingly, she took a look over at me. I smiled again and only slightly in that smug way if you know what I mean, lol.
I knew an artist worked hard to make that icon so really I was doing it for him at least as much as myself. He didn't deserve to have his good art work work show up in black and white. I would have been ashamed to let it happen.
Another great software-from-the-trenches story!
To set 80% as a functionality goal for a critical service for millions of people is institutionalizing incompetence.
Would the army be happy if 80% of their bullets?
Would people be happy if 80% of the sewer lines worked in their city?
How about 80% of houses wired for electricity working?
Obama is the 80% president.
We need a few more years of ZIRP from QEeen Yellen to get there, with the full time job limiting rocket booster of Obamacare.
And yet . . .
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP/
As for FTE:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=prU
shows the current recovery is the same shape as the early Bush-era recovery, or lack thereof, before the housing bubble kicked things up a notch.
ZIRP is bad for savers, but "savers" are the problem now. Too much money collecting in too few hands.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GINIALLRH
Without ZIRP real estate would fall to what hard-money buyers would be willing to pay to acquire new rental properties for their mini-empires.
Our economy is indeed screwed six ways from Sunday and it puzzles me how my friends to the right have simply no clue what the real problems are. *
I feel like I'm in a Twilight Zone episode.
* not that the clowns to my left have much of a clue, either.
Troy said:
As for FTE:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=prU
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Interesting that the 25-54 actually dipped. Truth told it is a statistical aberration resulting from the peak boomers aging out just before the echo boomers made the lower bound. More people were born 1990 ±3 years than even during the peak boomer years.
Troy,
Unfortunately, savers can be hoarders. If real rates fall too much then savers are tempted to hoard things like oil. Doesn't exactly help the poor either. Sigh.
One thing is blatantly obvious. If 65% are indeed living paycheck to paycheck, then we are screwed at least six ways from Sunday.
There is no room for error and I expect the bull market in error to resume at some point. Deep sigh.
The financial "experts" seem to think nothing worse can happen due to the unprecedented support our weakened economy continues to receive.
That's a bit like saying that your health is great because you are currently in the intensive care unit. Things can and often do get worse for those receiving critical care.
Mr Slippery,
Doctor: I have good news. The "vast majority" (80%) of your internal organs are cancer free.
One thing is blatantly obvious. If 65% are indeed living paycheck to paycheck, then we are screwed at least six ways from Sunday.
Yeah, and somehow I think we're heading for more people living paycheck to paycheck.
More and more eCONomic output, more and more people falling behind. Feature, not a bug!
mab,
Yeah, and somehow I think we're heading for more people living paycheck to paycheck.
At some point we could be heading for more people barely living from unemployment check to unemployment check if long-term trends continue. Sigh.
Amazon's looking into drones. Bezos seems fairly excited about it.
There was just a mini-debate on CNBC about automation possibly reducing the number of service jobs.
One guy got it. He said that when the car came along, horses were out of work.
So the big question is... are computers getting smarter faster than people are getting smarter? I'm going to answer of course they are. The very first computer could not even speak or listen. Now they are very close to driving vehicles. Didn't take thousands upon thousands of years either.
More people were born 1990 ±3 years than even during the peak boomer years.
Actually peak boomers were 4.3M in 1957 and the early 1990s only got up to 4.15:
1987 3,809,394
1988 3,909,510
1989 4,040,958
1990 4,158,212
1991 4,110,907
1992 4,065,014
1993 4,000,240
but what with all the immigrants, it is correct that we're getting more intake soon!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LFWA24TTUSA647N
There is no room for error and I expect the bull market in error to resume at some point.
and yet . . .
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=puF
didn't even have to adjust axis scales; $1,800 billion in profits and 1800 on the S&P.
As for oil hoarding, that only works until the 1% runs out of tankers to park offshore.
The best thing to hoard is land. The land is eternal, more or less.
Troy,
$1,800 billion in profits and 1800 on the S&P
Without a job to fall back on, I'm not exactly going to count on corporate profits staying elevated. Maybe that's just me though.
The best thing to hoard is land. The land is eternal, more or less.
Doesn't work well in hyperinflation though, as food becomes more important than rent. And don't forget those property taxes. My property tax bill sure feels like rent, which it sort of is.
yeah, property taxes should be front-loaded for the first ~20 years and then tail off based on age.
speaking as a Georgist, we do land policy so, so wrong here.
no major nation does it all that well, outside of Germany maybe (they have prosperity combined with reasonable housing costs, something very hard to engineer)
It was Casey Serin being the first cockroach to give me the first concrete indication that something was rotten in the state of Denmark in late 2006.
Haven't got anything like that yet.
Troy,
yeah, property taxes should be front-loaded for the first ~20 years and then tail off based on age.
That wouldn't be very kind to those who move often, perhaps out of necessity. That said, I never owned a home until I was fairly sure I wouldn't have to move. My starter home is my home. Been living here for 16 1/2 years so far.
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