Tuesday, February 25, 2014

A Hair of the Housing Dog That Bit Us

The following chart shows the quarterly average of the purchase only house price index adjusted by the average hourly earnings of private production and nonsupervisory employees.


Click to enlarge.

The next chart shows the quarterly change.


Click to enlarge.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

10 comments:

mab said...

I'm sure that there are millions and million of underwater homeowers that are eternally grateful Bernanke prevented a 2% cpi deflation!

A 40% drop in leveraged home prices isn't a problem. But a 2% deflation in cpi would have been devastating.

Making sure "it" happens!

Moron!

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

A 40% drop in leveraged home prices isn't a problem. But a 2% deflation in cpi would have been devastating.

Reflation for the win!

Trickle down [into food] economics!

mab said...

It's only a matter of time until oil inflation "seeps" into wages!

Go long vehicle miles. The road less traveled no more!

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

Go long vehicle miles.

Bartender: Why the long face? High grain prices?

Horse: Yeah. Horses gettin' shorted. Sigh.

Rob Dawg said...

As long as te banks aren't the homeowners the Fed doesn't care. As long as banks are homeowners it is te only thing the Fed cares about.

Troy said...

Rising home prices were the locomotive that pulled the entire train, 2004-2007.

Well, rising home debtorship at least.

Literally no one gets this.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=su1

$5T of go-juice injected into the middle quintiles, 2002-2007. $1T per year. ~$20,000 per household.

But in the discussion of the 2008 fed meetings, no mention what-so-ever of this underlying flow that was failing.

Hopefully this is just a collective Sgt Schultz act, cuz if the PTB are really this clueless, man we're f-ed going forward.

Well, we are anyway I guess.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Surely the central banks don't have a banking bias! That's just crazy talk! ;)

Troy said...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=su2

Shows the new locomotive they hooked up after the last Casey Serins were found.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

Hopefully this is just a collective Sgt Schultz act, cuz if the PTB are really this clueless, man we're f-ed going forward.

Lend Over -> Bend Over

Troy said...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=su3

So if the 1980s was the first act, 2000s, the 2nd, 2020s are going to be the third.

Tokyo 2020 gives me a pretty good target for my life path.

Life there was pretty good in the 90s for me I guess. Expensive as hell, but the weird thing is that CPI has changed things a lot:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=su4

Go us.