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Goods Orders Signal U.S. Manufacturers Springing Back: Economy
Orders for U.S. durable goods excluding the volatile transportation category unexpectedly climbed in January by the most in eight months, a sign manufacturing is emerging from a slump induced by harsh weather.
The following chart shows the 18 month moving average of real monthly manufacturers' nondefense capital goods' new orders per capita (excluding aircraft, January 2014 dollars).
Click to enlarge.
Who in their right mind thinks "harsh weather" can explain an 18 month moving average that has been stagnant for 2 full years? As seen in the chart, the Great Recession's "recovery" apparently can't even make it back to the trough of the dotcom bust.
February 27, 2014
Boeing's Sales Weakness Weighs On US Durable Goods Orders
Durable goods orders in the U.S. have fallen by 1 percent m/m after commercial aircraft orders dropped by 20.2 percent m/m in January and motor vehicle orders declined by 2.2 percent m/m over the same period. With only 38 orders in January, hugely down from 318 in December, the Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) demonstrates a poor month in the famously volatile aircraft industry.
Good thing I excluded aircraft from my chart. Wouldn't want people to wrongly assume that this permabear is a pessimist. Sigh.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
2 comments:
Who in their right mind thinks "harsh weather" can explain an 18 month moving average that has been stagnant for 2 full years?
Right mind? Maybe it's a left brain thing. Or bs.
I'm going with bullsh%t!
mab,
Perhaps it is a Wright mind thing.
Is it going, going, gone?
Not exactly.
It's Boeing, boing, bong!
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