I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
This is the End and a New Beginning
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I've been thinking about this for some time.
After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I've decided to stop
writing the daily updates on the blog.
...
Silver Deep Dive
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Silver had a memorable year (+148%). Some of this can be explained by a
decline in the dollar. I decided to do some ML analysis to look for other
insights....
Another look a NVDA
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I've looked at NVDA a couple times, in *August 2023 *and *January 2024*.
On Saturday 8/26/23 I said the action in NVDA stock looked like it was
topping....
My fear, fwiw, is $40T is an unsolvable problem. All the poles are on the left-hand of the plane to borrow a really old engineering joke. So we're faced with deflation or hyperinflation, there is no in between. Conventional wisdom is that deflation can't happen. The Fed/TPTB won't allow it.
However, I've never seen everyone make the same bet and have it pay-out. There's no one left to pay it, which is back to the export solution. Export, to whom?
3 comments:
QE -> more competitive dollar -> more exports (yeay!)
more exports -> less output to consume domestically -> more inflation (yeay!)
Deflation with $40T of debt is the road to default.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sHf
shf indeed!
Export to whom?
My fear, fwiw, is $40T is an unsolvable problem. All the poles are on the left-hand of the plane to borrow a really old engineering joke. So we're faced with deflation or hyperinflation, there is no in between. Conventional wisdom is that deflation can't happen. The Fed/TPTB won't allow it.
However, I've never seen everyone make the same bet and have it pay-out. There's no one left to pay it, which is back to the export solution. Export, to whom?
AllanF (& Troy),
Export, to whom?
To all the other countries desperate to export to us of course!
Ba dum tssshhh
Sigh.
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