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Click to enlarge.
Three Observations:
1. The overall trend is down. Big shocker.
2. We get relatively higher yields at the peak of bubbles.
3. Relatively higher yields pop bubbles.
This is not investment advice.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
5 comments:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=t7M
blue is systemic debt leverage (ex-TBTF), down is deeper in the hole.
red is rates (right axis)
A break to the upside is inconceivable, not without a 1970s-scale dose of wage inflation.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=t7N
shows nominal wages doubled, 1970-1980 (and that was what the Volcker Fed was fighting, until they gave up as the 1984 election neared).
Wages doubled again, 1980-2000.
And are up 50%, 2000-now, but, alas, we've got about 10M workers age 15-64 sitting around waiting for a job to appear for them.
Me, I'm moving to Tokyo next year. The Olympics should bring mucho work there, LOL.
Troy,
A break to the upside is inconceivable, not without a 1970s-scale dose of wage inflation.
Agreed.
I think the odds of a 1970s-scale dose of wage inflation are low (to put it mildly).
Just read the factory wage in Tijuana is ~$400/mo. Workers at Foxconn make more than that, sigh.
6M jobs gone since 1990 and ain't coming back.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP
The path of least resistance to "save" the system is MMT. I don't see how our politics avoids this road, but I can not see where this road will take us, either.
MMT is the golden goose that gives the Dems social spending increases and the GOP their tax cuts.
Not sure what will kill it, either, sigh, since every problem it creates will give the politicians more to do.
Troy,
6M jobs gone since 1990 and ain't coming back.
I just can't help thinking that the "infection" is spreading.
I'm considering buying another video game for my PS3. If I do, I'll be making the purchase directly through the Playstation store.
No driving down to the mall. No auto maintenance needed. No gasoline used. No stop at a restaurant for a snack. No salesperson required.
Seems fairly deflationary to me.
*shrug shoulders*
Oops. Forgot one. I should add that by buying it through the Playstation store...
No delivery person shows up at my front door.
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