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Click to enlarge.
This musical tribute is dedicated to the bulls.
Oh, I believe in yesterday
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Monday: New Home Sales
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Weekend:
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• Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET,*Chicago Fed National Activity Index* for Novem...
3 hours ago
5 comments:
20 years is more than enough time to filter out most of the short-term cyclical noise (short-term expansions/contractions) and leave us with a reasonable long-term trend.
I assume the pre-1970 trend was fairly stable at ~ 2.5%. Ah , the wonders of neoliberal structural transformation !
You should call this graph "Bob" - for Robert Gordon.
Anonymous,
Here is the annual data.
I dropped it into Excel so that I could offer you some statistics. There were clearly lots of ups and downs. The median from 1930 to 1970 was 2.8%. The average was 2.3% (pulled down by the Great Depression).
2.8% these days is a pipe dream. Sigh.
OK , thanks. That's about what I thought.
The raw data makes it tough to grasp intuitively , but the long-term trend is clear , as shown by your curve-fitting.
Wish FRED gave us a way to do moving averages....
Anonymous,
Wish FRED gave us a way to do moving averages....
If everyone could do it easily, then I'd have to reduce the annual subscription cost of my blog from $0 to something even less. Just think how deflationary that would be.
Tongue firmly in cheek but not entirely joking of course. Go figure.
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