Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Parabolic Housing Starts Growth (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 6 month moving average of the annual growth of new privately owned housing units started.

Click to enlarge.

Oh the weather outside is frightful
But the fire is so delightful
And since we've no place to go
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

Man it doesn't show signs of stopping
And I've brought me some corn for popping
The lights are turned way down low
Let it snow! Let it snow!


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Nathan said...

Man, I really don't understand the market reaction to the FOMC announcement.

/doesn't get it

Stagflationary Mark said...


I got my taxes done today. I was asked what could make me more optimistic.

Over the long-term, I said Mr. Fusion and/or a natural gas boom that could bring the price of oil way down (as opposed to a recession bringing oil prices way down). That might not do it, but at least it would be a good start.

Over the short-term, I said Yellen talking these high interest rates (on the 10-year) down before they break something again. (I showed her 10 different charts showing why I thought interest rates were too high.)

I got home. I turned on the TV. Yellen reiterated that interest rates were well below normal and Steve Liesman asked her when a "normal" 4% fed funds rate would be coming again. How did 4% become normal? WTF!

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

We're living in bizarro financial universe. Needless to say, I am not optimistic.

Stagflationary Mark said...

As a side note, someone else asked Yellen to define "a considerable period of time" in regards to how long it would take for the Fed to hike rates after tapering was complete.

Unbelievably, Yellen actually offered an estimate! She said 6 months could be considerable amount of time.

Seriously? 6 months? Wow. That sure is considerable to someone like me (who holds 30 year I-Bonds to maturity, lol).

She's really going to regret defining that in my opinion, much like Bernanke probably still regrets not doing a better job announcing the taper last year.

Troy said...

mebbe Yellen is an idiot.

that is entirely possible.

as for housing starts

Blue is age 25-34 population, prime new homebuyer

Red is home construction employment (right axis)

So we're 500,000 hardhats short of the boom but the population of buyers is 2M greater.

How does that work???

It's like some coked-up Soviet Commissar is controlling our economy.

3.4M new people per year would like to buy a home, call it 1.7M new homes.

Actual starts are at 1M pace.

Stagflationary Mark said...


3.4M new people per year would like to buy a home, call it 1.7M new homes.

People in hell would like ice water. :(