Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Wrong Way Gartman Strikes Again?

September 28, 2016
CNBC: October will be 'spooky' month for investors, Dennis Gartman predicts

You have political circumstances, I think, that are going to make October an unbelievably volatile period of time.

The S&P 500 close has been stuck between 2126 and 2164 this month, currently lurking near the midpoint at 2139. Futures are down 0.2% as I type this. Eerily quiet. Too quiet. Spooky.


October 25, 2016
The Salt Lake Tribune: Treasury volatility drops to lowest since 2014

"People are looking for a December rate hike. Even with the presidential election, people are comfortable with rates."

Treasury volatility lowest since 2014? Eerily quiet. Too quiet. Spooky.

Don't you see what this means? It's not too late to make big money in October! If Gartman's right, then bet the farm that something "unbelievably volatile" is about to happen in the next few trading days! Woohoo!!

This is NOT investment advice. ;)


mab said...

How about relative volatility

Do I feel guilty about enjoying this epic race to the bottom? I SHouLD think not!

Stagflationary Mark said...


March 24, 2006
What's Sears' future?

The reclusive chairman avoids contact with analysts and reporters and declined to be interviewed for this story. But Lampert-watchers think there's more evidence than ever that the hedge-fund operator and investing whiz wants to turn the company into an investment empire along the lines of Berkshire Hathaway, taking it far beyond retail — and maybe even out of retail altogether.

And maybe even out of retail altogether? Genius!

"To claim that same-store sales is a 'vastly overrated metric' ignores every retailer's primary performance target, expense leverage tool and definition of success, and his reasoning rests more on mathematics than merchandising," said Carol Levenson, of the corporate bond research firm Gimme Credit, in a research note.

In hindsight, he same-store sales metric does seem overrated compared to the same-store fails metric. Sigh.

P.S. I think your relative volatilty link is broken, which is ironic since a broken link might best describe the feelings Donald and Hillary currently have for each other.

Two pees on a podium

mab said...

Searsiously, who knew there was a separate Sears stock for Canada? And it appears the Canadian same store fails are currently winning the race to the bottom. But like Trump vs Hillary, it's still a two horse race.

In case you are wondering, SRSC is one of Lampert's largest holdings in his ESL hedge fund. No Sears Mexico as far as I can tell. The genius must have anticipated the possibility of a wall.

It takes a village idiom!

Stagflationary Mark said...


It does take a village idiom! Hahaha!

You know, I do try to study all the idiotsincrazies of politics and economics, but there are just so many of them!

mab said...

but there are just so many of them!

Yes, and they are all so different!

Stagflationary Mark said...


That started off very funny but the longer I watched the more depressing it became.

It's enough to make me think that you scream, I scream, well, you know the rest. Sigh.

mab said...

but the longer I watched the more depressing it became.

Tell me about it. Even if and when we all commiserate, it might be as intended.

I was at a neighbor's house the other night. They were hosting a gathering for a local political candidate. About 20 people were in attendance, including four high school students from the high school Young Republicans Club. Seemingly nice kids volunteering for a candidate and an ideal.

I only went because the hosts were long time friends that needed an audience. I never thought of engaging in any political conversations. Not my style! My views are too unpopular.

I did speak with the young Republicans though - no-one else did. They were very well informed for their age, but it was easy to see where they got their info - Fox and Breitbart. That was fine with me.

I asked them about social media, something that is very new to me. They thought it was being used to distort the truth. I agreed, but said that it was a better forum than traditional print or broadcast media. I also noted how amazed I was that so many people commenting on social media, who were working without pay, were challenging the "official" record and sharing opposing views. They agreed and shared examples of their efforts.

During the entire discussion, all I could think about was how much our system brainwashes the young. Their understanding of history was so compromised. So sad. So very sad.

mab said...

That started off very funny but

Really? For me, that sh%t's not funny until someone loses an "aye"!

Extreme vetting vs extreme bird-dogging. I so love extremists! I feel like we can't lose!

Stagflationary Mark said...



Now I'm really confused. I thought it wasn't a par three until some nun muses a thy.

Not my style! My views are too unpopular.

Yeah, as an agnostic introvert with seriously atheist tendencies, I am often tempted to openly share my unpopular opinions on politics, religion, and money. "In God We Trust" would really get the ball rolling. Who doesn't love a good separation of church and state debate? Politics, religion AND money with just 4 simple words? Woohoo! Hahaha! Sigh.