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Employers Cut Jobs in August
What more is there to say?
Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts
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Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Preliminary 2025
Housing Forecasts
Excerpt:
Towards the end of each year, I collect some housing for...
3 hours ago
2 comments:
Hi Mark,
on your de- or inlation thoughts (as expressed in a discussion on CR):
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--An index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation fell off sharply in August and is well below the peak reached in October 2005.
At the same time, a smoothed version of the annualized growth rate also was sharply negative in August, moving to a negative reading of 5.1% from an upward-revised negative reading of 1.4% in July. Originally, the July reading was reported as down 1.7%.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday that its Future Inflation Gauge fell to 116.8 in August from an upward-revised 119.5 in July, which was originally reported as 119.3.
The gauge was pulled down in August by disinflationary moves in measures of jobs, loans, commodity prices, vendor performance and interest rates.
"With the U.S. future inflation gauge at a 27-month low, underlying inflation pressures continue to ebb," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
Weekly updates of the index are released only to subscribers.
-By John McAuley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4425; john.mcauley@dowjones.com
Rick
Hey Rick,
Did you check out my post on gasoline prices and the business cycle? I got it in just before the employment report, lol.
"It's almost enough to make me want to change my name to Deflationary Mark, but that's just not something I'd bet on long-term. Call me silly."
I'm fairly comfortable where I'm sitting. The dollar fell quite a bit today. My TIP bond fund has compensated for it though (up 0.83%, right now anyway). I think the ball is certainly in the deflationists camp though. Perhaps our government leaders are too incompetent to see that. I'd argue the market would have done better in the last 10 years without a Fed. At least it wouldn't be counting on the Greenspan/Bernanke Put to rescue it from risks it never should have taken in the first place.
I am and have been "betting" on slow growth. I'm using Japan's deflation as a worst case. In any event, TIPS will at least hold their own in a world with little real return opportunities one might think. I'm also "betting" on the older baby boomers to continue to reconsider their tolerance for risk.
And lastly, if China isn't heading down our historical path to a Great Depression I'll eat a bug (preferably a candy one though, since I'm risk averse ;)).
I also posted my thoughts on what I am actually rooting for (by being in TIPS) on a yahoo message board.
http://tinyurl.com/2oj8eb
The reasoning "might" surprise you a bit.
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