Tuesday, November 27, 2007

The Death of Real Yields v.5



We hit a new relative low on Monday in the 10-year TIPS real yield, but bounced off of it today (to ~1.58% according to Bloomberg, not shown in the chart, as there is a one trading day lag in the data I'm using).

If the stock market continues higher, real yields will probably continue to move higher. If the stock market resumes its downward path (or simply stagnates), real yields will probably continue to decline.

As a stagflationist, I'm firmly in the death of real yields camp, at least long-term. I could be wrong of course!

See Also:
The Death of Real Yields v.4

Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates
Treasury Direct: I Savings Bonds Rates & Terms

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