Monday, November 19, 2007

Los Angeles and Long Beach Trade

The Port of Los Angeles has released the shipping traffic for October. I've combined that data with the Port of Long Beach in the following charts.

Inbound traffic continues to deteriorate. Perhaps it is time to stick a fork in the consumer. I think we're done.

Outbound traffic is really picking up.

Overall trade is stagnant this year.

Our trade situation is improving (thanks to our dramatically weakened currency and possible recessionary inbound traffic).

Source Data:
Port of Long Beach: Statistics
Port of Los Angeles: Statistics
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program


Anonymous said...

Thanks for puting these charts together. It's very interesting data. I believe this shows weakening consumer demand. I've heard many retailers say they've cut back on inventory this year due to tepid customer demand.

On the other side of this data is Asia. I don't believe in the decoupling theory. China has way more production than consumption and they're going to suffer as well. Gary A. Shilling was on Bloomberg after just returning from China and doing an indepth study. He says that China does not have a large enough middle class with discretionary income to absorb the loss of demand from the American consumer.

I'm an optimist and I want to be bullish on the American economy but unfortunately I think we are in for a very rough patch. I also never in my life believed I would be diversifying away from the dollar to the degree I'm doing today.

Great post!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Famous Decoupling Theories

The dotcom bubble won't drag down other stocks.

The subprime mortgages won't drag down the overall housing market.

A flight to safety in one thing won't trigger a flight to safety in all things.

Rising gasoline prices can never drag down the American consumer.

A slowdown in the U.S. won't drag down the rest of the world.

Famous Coupling Theories

The Chinese economy cannot fall prior to the their Olympic games, since the two are so tightly coupled.

(The U.S. hosted both the Summer AND Winter Olympic Games during the Great Depression.)