Monday, June 6, 2011

A Risky Bet Revisited

March 1, 2009
A Risky Bet

I've been giving some thought today about how I have been consistently too optimistic even in my own dire predictions. I therefore offer a risky bet for those who feel that I continue to be too optimistic.


I'll be tracking California Pizza Kitchen in the years to come. I've been watching California's economy. I've been watching the restaurant business. I'm ashamed of myself for not thinking of it sooner.

The risk as I see it depends on whether this is a cyclical downturn or a secular downturn. I didn't start a blog based on the former, but I could be wrong of course.

This risky bet failed. There is no way to recoup the losses. I did not lose money on this bet (since I am risk averse), but I am still adding a "my personal blunders" tag. Fair is fair.

May 25, 2011
California Pizza Kitchen sold for $470M

Golden Gate Capital, a San Francisco private equity firm, said Wednesday that it will buy California Pizza Kitchen for $18.50 per share, or $470 million.

Although I continue to see ugly revenue and income growth, someone still saw hope there. It certainly wasn't the following person though and I must say that I share the sentiment.

May 19, 2011
California Pizza Kitchen's Numbers Taste Gross

Same-store sales were off 2.1%.

For what it is worth, I am still firmly in the secular downturn camp. You could probably have guessed that based on what I named this blog back in the fall of 2007. It isn't like I named it:

The Temporary Illusion of Prosperity

See Also:

The "Sure" Thing

No comments: