Thursday, July 19, 2012

Initial Claims Danger v.6

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

Last week I asked, "Is this a return to the former trend? Or is it a one-time anomalous event?"

1. We did not return to the former red trend line.
2. We did return to the new blue trend line.
3. The theory that this was a one-time anomalous event seems reasonable to me.

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.5 (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims


Mr Slippery said...

There are many coincident indicators that point to the birth of a new recession, but it could still reverse.

CR expects QE3 to launch August 1. Even if it does, it may be too late. Any number of lit fuses in Europe could go off, and we the fiscal fuse burning here set to blow up Jan 1.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

Calculated Risk: LA Times: "Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach building at furious pace"

Is he posting that because he sees it as a sign the economy really is improving and he is right to be more bullish?

Or is he posting that because he sees it as a sign of excess since the port traffic hasn't grown in a VERY long time?

You tell me and we'll both know.

I know what my opinion is. I think it is a sign of excess.