Saturday, July 21, 2012

"The Trade of the Decade"

the 30 year auction was terrible - short bonds, potentially the trade of the decade.. buy tbt $$ - Douglas Kass (October 14, 2010)

Click to enlarge.

TBT (10/14/2010): $33.34
TBT (7/20/2012): $14.58

56.3% Loss

One wonders if Doug Kass gets his trading tips from the Wall Street Journal. I am referring specifically to "The Great American Bond Bubble" written two months earlier by Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz (as also seen in the following link).

August 18, 2010
The Mother of All Sarcasm Reports (v.58)

I wish you could see my eyes rolling now. They've never moved this sarcastically before. I can't even keep them in the sockets. It's making me so dizzy that I'm tempted to vomit.

I'm not quite done with Mr. Kass. As of June 18th, we've been on white swan watch here at the Illusion of Prosperity.

June 18, 2012
DOUG KASS: These 12 Factors Could Spark A Powerful And Unexpected Rally

12. Possible white swans.

I don't mean to be alarmist but the white swans were last seen behind the woodshed.

Source Data:
Yahoo Finance: TBT


Mr Slippery said...

He really made a Kass of himself, no?

I'm reading Kahenman's Thinking, Fast and Slow, in a chapter about the illusion of financial expertise. Even with powerful statistical evidence, people in the industry refuse to believe it is mostly luck. But if so, how do consistent losers like Kass stay employed and get media outlets? There are soooooo many consistent losers I can't even count them.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

I believe Doug Kass got the housing bubble right. You'd think THAT would be the trade of the decade.

He thought he found something even bigger? Oh the hubris!!

Stagflationary Mark said...

In all seriousness, I wish we could find a financial expert that was always wrong. We could make a fortune doing the opposite.

Unfortunately, it's a bit like trying to bet against a "gifted" astrologer at the roulette table. The only winner over the long-term is the casino.

mab said...

In all seriousness, I wish we could find a financial expert that was always wrong.

Lenny Dykstra?

Stagflationary Mark said...


If Lenny had bet on his own demise, then he'd be at the top of his game right now.

Not his style! ;)