Posts
Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge.
Et tu, Brute?
While the phrase is usually understood as an expression of shock towards Brutus' betrayal, it has recently been argued that, if they were uttered by Caesar, the phrase is thought to instead be intended as a curse and threat.
So many exponential trend failures, so little time.
Source Data:
World Population
9 comments:
I noticed you did not venture any speculation about why the growth rate might be slowing.
Japan, Russia, and European birth rates are all slowing significantly. Could it be economic conditions, cultural changes, better birth control, education?
"Carthago delenda est"
Et tu, ........ American middle class...... American individuality ........ American privacy........... AMerican freedom of expression ........ European culture ........ ????????
Mr Slippery,
I noticed you did not venture any speculation about why the growth rate might be slowing.
Your list seems good to me. I think the odds are growing that we'll eventually see an antibiotic resistant black [plague] swan strike again someday. A world war using modern weapons could also put a dent in the population. I'm not predicting it but they don't call it a military industrial complex for nothing. Sigh.
At the very least, the earth's population will peak when our sun dies.
All exponential trends are guaranteed to fail at some point. I think that was my main point here.
mab,
"Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges"
Definitely we are at least stabilizing for demographic/historical reasons, or on the precipice of a decline (which would mean a lot of death, which isn't good.)
Bulskyn,
The dark ages may soon be upon us again.
which would mean a lot of death, which isn't good
demographic decline is not really "death".
it's just less people being born.
I put Japan's demographic decline into perspective with this:
http://i.imgur.com/MEYno.png
The 85.3M number is Japan's notional (not counting immigrants or deaths) age 20-60 population when it peaked in 1973.
The green boxes are the prefectures of Shikoku, and show how long this demographic took to lose those amounts of population (as of year 2010).
So by the late 1980s Japan had lost the current population of Shikoku (~4M) from its workforce.
And by next year it will lose the current population of Kyushu (~12M).
By the next 10 years Hokkaido will disappear.
After that I threw in some peripheral prefectures.
Something tells me real estate is going to get really cheap in Japan this century.
Japan's rice consumption is also declining. Left to its own devices, the market price is going to crash, since Japan is in oversupply now and thanks to the strong yen imports are 1/4th the current cost of production.
Japan is going to go from a scarcity economy to a plenty economy.
The latter is kinda scarier since it means no more jobs for people.
Troy,
The latter is kinda scarier since it means no more jobs for people.
The trends aren't looking so great here either.
March 23, 2012
Job Growth vs. Population Growth
Payroll growth is slowing compared to population growth. Population growth is also slowing.
Post a Comment