Monday, August 13, 2012

Too Big for Jail

Click to enlarge.

Good times.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Mr Slippery said...

Hey, is it time for a Bondmaggedon 2 post? 10 year just broke 1.8, which is quite a rise from 1.46.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

We're certainly getting close. I better start working on the movie trailer, lol.

Bondmaggedon 2.0

If you thought the first one was shocking, then you better brace for the aftershocking. - [narrator]

Stagflationary Mark said...

Upon further reflection, we're not that close. We actually fell off the Bondmageddon chart and are now simply back on it. We're also not all that far from May's "You Are Here" point.

I'm also looking through the news and don't see enough short treasuries for easy money ("sure thing") advice yet.

Mr Slippery said...

Whoever bought the 10 year 40 basis points ago is probably not taking this spike casually.

Humans count losses roughly 4 times as much as gains. It's our wiring. So, if you bought the 10 year at a 4% yield, this is a yawner. At 1.4%, this is very painful.

Bondmageddon depends, like many things, on where your point of view.

mab said...

Too big for jail! Yes, and thank goodness. Just imagine how bad things would be if our job creators were in prison.

Also, Sears didn't disappoint! I just love the consistency!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

At 1.4%, this is very painful.

With the intent to trade, yes.

With the intent to hold to maturity, not so much.

I'm not suggesting that holding 1.4% to maturity isn't or won't be painful. I'm simply saying that the majority of the pain was kind of known up front.

Put another way, it's not exactly a tropical paradise for savers. Sigh.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I just love the consistency!

Yes! Consistency! ;)