Sunday, September 29, 2013

A Retail Sales Accident Waiting to Happen (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.

Monthly retail and food services sales per capita is shown in blue.
Annual median household income is shown in red.

Please factor in that neither series is adjusted for inflation. You are therefore looking at the raw data in all its grandeur.

We must be incredibly optimistic as a society. I say this because the following is what Google offers me as search results.

1. 8,870,000 search results for "Pent-Up Demand"
2. 230 search results for "Pent-Down Demand"

As for the latter, my blog currently holds the top search result. Hurray! And with this post, I'm looking to expand my dominance of the "Pent-Down Demand" analysis market! Most excellent! Sigh.

If you're happy and you know it, pent demand!
If you're happy and you know it, pent demand!
If you're happy and you know it
And you really want to show it
If you're happy and you know it, pent demand!

Next up... Stomping our feet and turning around! Woohoo!

September 5, 2013
August Retail Sales Shy of Hopes

Many retailers, including the major department stores, have stopped reporting monthly results over the past year, making it more difficult to gauge the performance of the entire industry.

Where have we heard that before?

"The reason those guys don't want to report same-store sales is because they're in a lot of trouble. They have a broken business model, and they would sorely wish analysts would pay less attention to what they're doing. They're trying to hide." - Peter Morici, 2008

And on that note, I am officially reducing my short-term inflation outlook (as seen in the upper left corner of my blog) to boringly flat just in time for the 2013 Christmas season. It's just a gut feel, nothing more.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

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