Sunday, September 15, 2013

"Quality" Job Growth (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual growth in quality nonfarm employment. I am excluding retail trade and food services and drinking places jobs, as these are relatively low paying jobs (and generally do not require a college degree).

Click to enlarge.

1. As seen in red, we're currently attempting to hug the high point long-term declining trend.
2. As seen in blue, the overall long-term declining trend has finally reached 0% growth.

How can one not be optimistic when wearing the proper spectacles? Don't even look at the blue trend line. Just stare at where we are on the red trend line! It's still positive! The glasses are therefore still half full!

Seriously, this economy is to dye for! There's no need to be chicken. Swing for the fences! The Fed has permanently put a stop to recessions! What's the worst that could happen?

Chicken Eyeglasses

The idea behind the glasses is to prevent chickens from attacking and cannibalizing one another. Red-tinted lenses, as opposed to other colors, are said to be effective in stopping the internecine pecking because they disguise the color of blood. As summed up in a 1953 article in Indiana's National Road Traveler newspaper, "The deep rose-colored plastic lenses make it impossible for the cannibal [chicken] to see blood on the other chickens, although permitting it to see the grain on the ground."

Yes! More grain! Less life blood!

This is not investment advice. Don't be a victim of sarchasm!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Anonymous said...

That is an extraordinary chart! So, following the basic trend long-term, we're losing good jobs. And, I suppose on per capita basis, it's much worse.

Thanks again, for scaring us out of our wits!


Joseph Constable said...

Industrial production rises most is six months just one work day after you posted the chart of it rolling over.

So maybe we have a straight trend line not a curved line.

Stagflationary Mark said...


Scary chart indeed!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Joseph Constable,

1. It's a noisy series. The jump 6 months ago was much bigger.
2. 4+ years of data clearly shoes that it isn't a straight line.
3. One month's data does not a new trend make, although anything is possible.
4. I wasn't expecting it to roll over yet. We have not yet reached the top of the parabola. If and when we reach the top, I wouldn't expect it to roll over right away. The top of a parabola is flat.

As always, just opinions. We'll certainly see what happens in the coming months. For what it is worth, my long standing best guess for when the next recession hits is on or before October 2014. My opinion still stands.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Here is the update to Friday's post.

Check out the 12-month moving average (to eliminate much of the monthly noise).

Industrial production is one of the most perfect parabolas in economics that I have ever seen.