Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 3-year moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. I have added a 2nd order polynomial trend channel in red.

Click to enlarge.

Gotta love optimism. Assuming that the trend channel holds (might not), then we definitely live in the best of all possible worlds right now. We're hugging the top of that declining channel like glue. Yay.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer
Trend Line Disclaimer
Where am I going and why am I in this handbasket?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index

1 comment:

Stagflationary Mark said...

This is the sense that I get from looking at the chart.

National activity climbs until it peaks. Once it first peaks, the next major move is down.

We recently experienced a peak. I would therefore not expect another substantially higher peak until after there is a major move down. Further, I am actually never expecting a substantially higher peak. I realize that never is a very long time. I guess that's what makes me a permabear.

Just opinions of course. I would definitely not predict this with 100% certainty. That said, there is zero chance I would put my life savings in the stock market right now, which oddly enough is roughly the same percentage one can earn on 3-month treasury bills. I doubt very much that's a coincidence.