Monday, September 9, 2013

Peak American Labor per Capita


Click to enlarge.

The record high of 11.03 hours per capita was set in April of 2000. I see very little evidence that a new record will ever be reached.

From a long-term perspective, we are currently in the illusion of prosperity's unwinding phase. Put another way, we're in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. It's just an opinion of course. Your opinion may vary.

September 18, 2007
Suze Orman vs. Warren Buffett

I'm afraid that the people selling are the little investors. - Suze Orman, April 2000

Fabulous economy. Best that we've had in forever, almost. - Suze Orman, April 2000


Speaking of fabulous economies...

August 31, 2006
Why Do Americans Hate their Fabulous Economy?

Polls consistently show that Americans are rather negative about the economy, and many have wondered why that might be considering that our economy is the envy of the world (as well it should be). The source of our pessimism is a bit of a mystery, and it is one that I am going to pursue. For the moment, I'll simply note that I have identified what may be a contributing factor to our unwarranted despair: reporters rarely use charts, and that allows them to wax poetic about the 'jobless recovery,' 'worrisome signs of inflation,' 'record setting deficits,' and other such nonsense. Charts anchor the mind to the raw data, which makes it hard to use bumper-sticker slogans that mislead (and demoralize) more than they clarify. In any story about the economy, there is never an excuse not to use a chart, but reporters almost never do.

In hindsight, that's just priceless. It would seem that the original source of that quote has been [nearly] permanently deleted. The Internet is not [nearly] so forgiving though. It is very difficult to undo what was once said in public.

As for being a reporter, I don't need an excuse to use a chart. I dwell on them. This "fabulous economy" has *so* many trend failures that I can't even begin to keep up. They fascinate me, both in quantity and quality, lol. Sigh.

This is not investment advice, but it does lean heavily towards gallows humor.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population

2 comments:

Troy said...

With one out of twenty taking one out of three income dollars, we, actually, don't need more labor per se to get "growth" back.

We can take the rents back, out of the top 5%.

But who am I kidding, LOL. The 1% have been constructing the defenses of their position for 40 years now.

Something else is going to have to happen.

In the paper today the article was on the city dispersing the third homeless camp this summer. They had a quote from a wanna-be 5%er, about how now property values will go up so he'll be buying an investment property now.

http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/09/09/3487677/fresno-city-workers-set-to-demolish.html

facepalm

As for graphs:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=mfx

real per-capita (age 16+) after-tax corporate profits.

That *could* be a 'citizens dividend', LOL, but of course if we pushed $7000/yr per capita into the economy, rents would just go up $10,000 or more.

But, oddly, enough, minus housing costs and healthcare, $7000/yr $600/mo -- is more than enough to live on.

The Norwegians get free healthcare apparently, but free housing, not so much.

IMF warns Norway over housing bubble

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

But who am I kidding, LOL. The 1% have been constructing the defenses of their position for 40 years now.

Yeah.

But, oddly, enough, minus housing costs and healthcare, $7000/yr $600/mo -- is more than enough to live on.

Easily. My biggest expenses over the past year were property taxes and vet bills. Don't even get me started on the latter. Our dog Honey will be getting a surgery soon. It will cost me roughly the same amount as I have spent on food over the past 2 1/2 years. That's not even counting what I've spent on her over the past year (another 3 1/2 years worth of food).

Vet bills aren't normally this high of course. She's just had a few major problems that will hopefully be resolved.