Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Building Permit Slowdown for Privately Owned 1-Unit Structures

The first chart shows the annual change in new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits for 1-unit structures. I'm using quarterly averages to smooth out the noise a bit.

Click to enlarge.

Can't we just blame it the weather and call it good?

The next chart shows just the data for Florida, Nevada, and Arizona (three of the previous housing bubble's largest hotspots).

Click to enlarge.

I guess it all depends on how much annual polar vortex activity there was in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. As seen in the chart, the growth trend has been decelerating at a consistent pace for a full year. We'll therefore need a whole year's worth of polar vortex activity in three of the warmest states. Totally doable with the right spin!

Further, just look at all that volatility in the data since 2005. I can't even begin to tell you how much that fills me with confidence. Slow and steady is so overrated. Anarchy! Random profits and losses! That's what makes the casino life right for me!

This is not investment advice (especially that part about casino life being right for me).

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (National)
St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (Florida + Nevada + Arizona)

No comments: