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Ten Questions for 2014
1. How many decades will we be stuck in ZIRP?
2. Will it be as many decades as Japan?
3. Why is the Fed tapering?
4. When will the Fed ramp up QE again?
5. How much more poning can the hyperinflationists take?
6. Why am I so willing to hold long-term TIPS to maturity?
7. Where have all the "bond vigilantes" gone?
8. What are they doing with all their profits?
9. Sears? (It's a rhetorical question.)
10. Why must I use the sarcasm label in nearly every post?
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
14 comments:
Today's Sears link sure is fascinating. They're moving the call center jobs from Canada to the Philippines.
Analyst Kyle Murray says the moves are designed to help Sears deal with a shrinking customer base.
Yeah, that industry wide department store trend just sort of snuck up on them 15 years ago. They are just now getting around to "dealing" with it. That's why Eddie Lampert is paid the big bucks! ;)
Real Monthly Department Store Sales per Capita (December 2013 Dollars)
Concentrate the sarcasm by converting Sears to "srsly, dude?"
1. How many decades will we be stuck in ZIRP?
Well, given statistical mortality rates, and assuming I can expect an average life span, I've got about 30 years to go to the second number on my tombstone.
So, the answer to question one is...about three.
I wear faultfinding, ill-natured, unfavorable cynicism like a jacket.
shtove,
"If you don't have faith as a shield, an actual shield is a good substitute." - Quote from Diablo 3
If you don't have faith in SHLD (the ticker symbol for Sears) as a store of value, then purchasing an actual shield is a good substitute. ;)
Fritz_O,
Well, given statistical mortality rates, and assuming I can expect an average life span, I've got about 30 years to go to the second number on my tombstone.
I'm 49.
So, the answer to question one is...about three.
Three would probably work for me, give or take one.
At the very least, I can always engage in much riskier behavior if the three starts looking more like a two, lol. Sigh.
Correction:
Real Monthly Department Store Sales per Capita (December 2013 Dollars)
I failed to set the CPI's observation date to December 2013. It was therefore in 1982-1984 dollars.
3. Why is the Fed tapering?
The Fed is playing it by ear. The answer is why not? Bernanke wanted to start the process before he left as a small CYA. Now he can wash his hands of it when Yellen cranks it back up.
Think about the cycle they are stuck in...1) create money from a vacuum, 2) buy Treasuries, 3) send interest back to Treasury. But the private economy still has a gigantic hole in it and can't generate enough taxes to fund the government, so the QE circle jerk continues. Does the Fed buy ALL debt issued by the US. Then what?
The blind leading blind following the lost (not the TV show, but just as random).
If you don't have faith in SHLD (the ticker symbol for Sears) as a store of value...
I don't have faith in SHLD as either a store of value or as a store of value.
Come to think of it, I don't have either version of the aforementioned faith in BBY. Or BBBY.
Does the Fed buy ALL debt issued by the US.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Mr Slippery,
But the private economy still has a gigantic hole...
She's a hole lotta rosie outlooks though. You could say she's got it all.
Fritz_O,
I don't have faith in SHLD as either a store of value or as a store of value.
Nicely played sir, nicely played.
BBY and BBBY did great when Circuit City and Linens 'N Things ran into serious trouble. Maybe they just need to repeat that survivorship winning strategy!
Alternatively, eating one's own limbs during periods of starvation might also prolong life to some degree. Oh, wait. I think that's the SHLD growth model. Never mind!
Mr Slippery & Fritz_O,
Does the Fed buy ALL debt issued by the US.
Simple Solution:
The US always looks to see how much the Fed is buying and then offers twice as much.
Genius! ;)
Maybe they just need to repeat that survivorship winning strategy!
Speaking of winning strategies...did you see where Amazon employees opted out of union formation?
How long have robots been able to ponder union formation?
Fritz_O,
Thanks for sharing that. I was curious how that would turn out. You've inspired the next post.
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