Thursday, January 30, 2014

Parabolic Trend Failure of the Day: Retail Hourly Earnings

The following chart shows the average hourly earnings for retail employees (not adjusted for inflation). I'm using quarterly averages to smooth out the data.

Click to enlarge.

The parabolic trend line in red uses the data points in red. As a side note, I first tried to use an exponential trend line but it turns out that the data was not growing exponentially (not even remotely). Parabolic is so much more fun anyway though! Very sustainable over the long-term (until it isn't)!

Retail employees just lost what little pricing power they had left. Have no fear if you are one of the 15 million retail employees though. We've been told repeatedly that our economy is strong and resilient!

That said, we've also been told that online retailers wouldn't hurt the brick and mortars all that much and that the 10-year treasury yield would be well north of 3% by now (thanks to our strong and resilient economy of course). We're told a lot of things. If we're told enough things, some of it is bound to be true!

Rather than listen to the financial "experts" on CNBC, let's summarize what the chart's trying to say in one rhetorical question or less.

Can you say retail employment glut? :(

This is not employment advice. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

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