Friday, January 24, 2014

The Unmentionable Employment Growth Risk

The following chart shows quarterly employment growth using the average of the establishment and household surveys.

Click to enlarge.

I have added a parabolic trend channel in red using the data points in red. I have also added a parabolic trend in blue that uses all of the data points.

If the Fed's only tools to fight gravity are ZIRP and QE, then everything starts to look like a parabola.

This is not investment advice. I do not claim to be able to accurately predict the future based on extrapolating the recent past. That said, you better hope that the chart is just a silly distraction in an endless sea of prosperity. I mean really, you better hope that. The stock market has had quite a run since 2009. No party lasts forever.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

1 comment:

Stagflationary Mark said...


too offensive, shocking, or embarrassing to talk about or mention

Oops. Sorry about that.