Friday, March 21, 2014

A Bold Prediction: When Will Real Estate Fully Recover?

The following chart shows household and nonprofit real estate market value divided by disposable personal income (since 1980).


Click to enlarge.

So here is my bold prediction using 20/20 hindsight goggles. The market value of real estate compared to disposable personal income will fully recover one year ago!

As an added bonus, we're making sensational progress on reflating the next economy crippling housing bubble. This is fantastic news for those who believe that a stock market bubble alone can drive our economy forward in the coming years! Woohoo!

Too much sarcasm? Seems excessive again.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

4 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

Yeah, I noticed the milk (and dairy) increases lately.

Meanwhile, there's the imported sugar glut to offset it to some degree.

India, the world’s biggest sugar producer after Brazil, will subsidize shipments of raw sweetener to ease a domestic glut and help mills clear arrears of about $422 million to farmers before elections scheduled by May.

I love the "before elections" part. Gotta get those subsidies done in time, lol. Sigh.

Troy said...

(one serving a day is 22lbs a year, ~ten 38oz Costco containers (actually I buy my almonds from Trader Joes) and ~10X the current US per-capita consumption rate.

That 1oz plus cheese and crackers and maybe an apple bridges me between breakfast and dinner fine now.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

Almond crunch: California drought withers world supply

Ack! I prefer almond milk on my cereal (although who knows just how many almonds go in it).

Stagflationary Mark said...

Only 2M workers apparently in the US:

Wow. The chart is fascinating. It doesn't even look natural. Straight line down. Straight line across. Severe drop straight down. Straight line across again.

I wonder what happened in 1999/2000 to lose a million all at once.