Monday, October 20, 2014

Desert Plains + ZIRP = FAIL (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual percentage change in Arizona construction employment.

Click to enlarge.

I have added a parabolic trend in red covering the recovery. Why a parabola? Well, let's just say that an exponential growth trend just doesn't fit the data all that well. This begs a question. Wasn't ZIRP supposed to prevent upside down parabolas from forming?

February 21, 2013
A Phoenix Housing Boom Forms, in Hint of U.S. Recovery

The housing market in Phoenix presaged and magnified the collapse in real estate. Now its recovery could reveal much about the prospects for a nationwide turnaround.

Using similar logic, one wonders what this recovery failure could foretell.

Full moon is rising
The sky is black
I heed your call I'm coming back

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Anonymous said...

The recovery seems to have shifted from producing gains
to protecting gains. Not a good sign for the bottom 80

Stagflationary Mark said...


We need a Producer Protection Index, but PPI is already taken.